Assessing seismic vulnerability of urban road networks by a Bayesian network approach

Tang, Yingjie; Huang, Shupei

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.003

Cited by 47 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 16 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The Bayesian statistical method is a suitable method for combining prior (historical) information and sample information. Bayesian inference and Bayesian network methods have been used frequently to solve a wide variety of practical problems [ 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 , 55 ]. These methods have also been applied widely to solve the O–D demand estimation problem [ 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 16 ].…”

Section: Bayesian Statistical Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Method for Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Data

Zhu

Yang

et al. 2021

Sensors

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper a Bayesian method is proposed to estimate dynamic origin–destination (O–D) demand. The proposed method can synthesize multiple sources of data collected by various sensors, including link counts, turning movements at intersections, flows, and travel times on partial paths. Time-dependent demand for each O–D pair at each departure time is assumed to satisfy the normal distribution. The connections among multiple sources of field data and O–D demands for all departure times are established by their variance-covariance matrices. Given the prior distribution of dynamic O–D demands, the posterior distribution is developed by updating the traffic count information. Then, based on the posterior distribution, both point estimation and the corresponding confidence intervals of O–D demand variables are estimated. Further, a stepwise algorithm that can avoid matrix inversion, in which traffic counts are updated one by one, is proposed. Finally, a numerical example is conducted on Nguyen–Dupuis network to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian method and solution algorithm. Results show that the total O–D variance is decreasing with each added traffic count, implying that updating traffic counts reduces O–D demand uncertainty. Using the proposed method, both total error and source-specific errors between estimated and observed traffic counts decrease by iteration. Specifically, using 52 multiple sources of traffic counts, the relative errors of almost 50% traffic counts are less than 5%, the relative errors of 85% traffic counts are less than 10%, the total error between the estimated and “true” O–D demands is relatively small, and the O–D demand estimation accuracy can be improved by using more traffic counts. It concludes that the proposed Bayesian method can effectively synthesize multiple sources of data and estimate dynamic O–D demands with fine accuracy.

show abstract

Section: Bayesian Statistical Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Method for Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Data

Zhu

Yang

et al. 2021

Sensors

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Tang and Huang [150] assessed the seismic vulnerability of road networks based on a Bayesian network approach, which considers bridges and roads as the main components. The model was developed on the area that is centering Shunhe Hui District and the Baogong Lake in China.…”

Section: Methods Considering Uncertainties (Probabilistic Models)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies for Roadway Assets and Networks: A State-of-the-Art Review

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Road networks are considered as one of the most important transport infrastructure systems, since they attain the economic and social prosperity of modern societies. For this reason, it is vital to improve the resiliency of road networks in order to function normally under daily stressors and recover quickly after natural disasters such as an earthquake event. In the last decades, vulnerability assessment studies for road networks and their assets gained great attention among the research community. This literature review includes a brief introduction about seismic vulnerability assessment, followed by the roadway assets damage and their damage states, and then the main typologies for the vulnerability assessment of roadway assets. Moreover, it focuses on available assessment methods, which were proposed to quantify the vulnerability of road networks and its assets. These methods are divided into two main categories, physical and traffic-based approaches. Methods based on fragility functions and vulnerability indexes were investigated in physical approach for roadways and its assets. On the other hand, accessibility and link importance index were explored in traffic-based approach for road networks. This paper reviews and comments the most common vulnerability assessment methods for road networks and its assets and points out their advantages and disadvantages. The main gaps and needs are identified and recommendations for future studies are provided.

show abstract

“…Researchers in (El-Rashidy and Grant-Muller 2014; Ouyang et al 2014) studied the road network risk through game theory regarding its accessibility. Furthermore, authors also used brainstorming, survey, and, interview techniques (Fiondella et al 2012;Tang and Huang 2019). However, the current study used the Delphi technique to investigate project risk in the construction industry.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comprehensive Study of Project Risks in Road Transportation Networks under CPEC

Alam

Zhang

Ali

et al. 2019

IJFS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The China–Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) is a collection of different ongoing projects including transportation, infrastructure, the Gwadar seaport, oil pipeline, and internet connection zone projects. The Chinese government has adopted a development strategy for infrastructure growth and investment in Pakistani and Asian territories through the CPEC project. Transportation is considered the backbone of the CPEC. In addition to the CPEC project is the linked “belt and road initiative” (BRI) project, which aims to enhance regional connectivity and is a harbinger of the future in Asia, as well as in European countries. However, uncertain situations, such as a lack of proper planning, security, and political stability, hinder the growth and development of infrastructure. Three corridors of the CPEC road transportation network, namely, the eastern, the western, and future central alignment, have been examined through a master supposition group using the Delphi technique, which has never been applied to the road transportation network in the CPEC plan. The review is designed to draw master conclusions and demonstrate an outcome for round one and two in the present work. Round one and two investigate the impact of stakeholder support, politicians’ roles, terrorism, security situations, poverty, and economic crises. Using the Delphi technique within the host country hinders the construction of the road network. The results obtained through the appraisal have justified the present potential endeavor.

show abstract

Assessing seismic vulnerability of urban road networks by a Bayesian network approach

Cited by 47 publications

References 16 publications

A Bayesian Method for Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Data

A Bayesian Method for Dynamic Origin–Destination Demand Estimation Synthesizing Multiple Sources of Data

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies for Roadway Assets and Networks: A State-of-the-Art Review

A Comprehensive Study of Project Risks in Road Transportation Networks under CPEC

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About