Assessing the correlated performance functions of an engineering system via probabilistic analysis

Wu, Xing Zheng

doi:10.1016/j.strusafe.2014.07.004

Cited by 26 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Entropy 2017, 19,431 3 of 20 in the southbound 3.1 km section of the National Freeway No. 3 in Cidu.…”

Section: Overview Of the Dip Slope Slides On National Freeway No 3 Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Entropy 2017, 19,431 4 of 20 seams that are considered to be potential causes of tilt failure are found at the same depth as the sliding plane in some of the boreholes. The design of the excavated dip slope consisted of three tiers with 1:1-1:1.5 slopes.…”

Section: Overview Of the Dip Slope Slides On National Freeway No 3 Imentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Probability analysis was first developed in the 1940s and used for the first time in slope engineering in the 1970s [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. In recent years, due to the dramatic changes in the climate, environmental changes have gradually increased, landslide analysis of the external and internal environmental parameters has increased the uncertainty [11], and more and more scholars of slope stability analysis and research use probabilistic techniques [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Probability analysis is applied to slope stability analysis, collecting relevant literature, often using methods as follows: (1) First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM) or First Order Second Moment Method (FOSM) [20][21][22]; (2) Response Surface Method (RSM) [23][24][25]; (3) Subset Simulation [13,25,26]; (4) Stochastic Collocation (SC) [27,28]; (5) Quadrature Method of Moments (QMOM) [29,30]; (6) Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) [25,[31][32][33][34][35]; and (7) Point Estimate Method (PEM) [36][37][38][39][40]…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Influence of Failure Probability Due to Parameter and Anchor Variance of a Freeway Dip Slope Slide—A Case Study in Taiwan †

Chen

Cheng

2017

Entropy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The traditional slope stability analysis used the Factor of Safety (FS) from the Limit Equilibrium Theory as the determinant. If the FS was greater than 1, it was considered as "safe" and variables or parameters of uncertainty in the analysis model were not considered. The objective of research was to analyze the stability of natural slope, in consideration of characteristics of rock layers and the variability of pre-stressing force. By sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the result showed the sensitivity for pre-stressing force of rock anchor was significantly smaller than the cohesive (c) of rock layer and the varying influence of the friction angle (φ) in rock layers. In addition, the immersion by water at the natural slope would weaken the rock layers, in which the cohesion c was reduced to 6 kPa and the friction angle φ was decreased below 14 • , and it started to show instability and failure in the balance as FS became smaller than 1. The failure rate to the slope could be as high as 50%. By stabilizing with a rock anchor, the failure rate could be reduced below 3%, greatly improving the stability and the reliability of the slope.

show abstract

“…Entropy 2017, 19,431 3 of 20 in the southbound 3.1 km section of the National Freeway No. 3 in Cidu.…”

Section: Overview Of the Dip Slope Slides On National Freeway No 3 Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Overview Of the Dip Slope Slides On National Freeway No 3 Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Influence of Failure Probability Due to Parameter and Anchor Variance of a Freeway Dip Slope Slide—A Case Study in Taiwan †

Chen

Cheng

2017

Entropy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The copula function offers a flexible way for modeling the joint function based on multivariate data (Eryilmaz, 2014;Tang et al, 2013Tang et al, , 2015. For example, Wu modeled the joint PDF using the copula approach to analyze the correlation for a complex engineering system (Wu et al 2015). However, few studies have used the copula function in modeling temperature field of a structural system, particularly due to two reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature gradient modeling of a steel box-girder suspension bridge using Copulas probabilistic method and field monitoring

Zhang

Liu

Deng³

2020

Advances in Structural Engineering

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A novel copula-based probabilistic model is proposed to establish the temperature difference analysis model for a long-span suspension bridge’s steel box girder. The key idea is to express a two-dimensional function of the temperature difference in flat steel box girder by using copulas. The maximum and minimum values of daily temperature difference model was developed using long-terms structural health monitoring data. Then, the correlation between adjacent temperature differences is investigated using five types of copulas. Akaike information criterion (AIC) is used to select an optimal model from five types of copulas, and the optimal joint function (two-dimensional function) for steel box girder’s temperature difference is established. Finally, the structure’s temperature gradient model is extrapolated for the service life of the structure by using Monte Carlo method. Moreover, this paper discusses the temperature gradient models using five types of common copulas and four types of time-varying copulas. The result shows that the t-copula is the optimal function to build the two-dimensional functions for steel box girder’s temperature difference, and the temperature model along the transverse direction can offer useful information that is not available in the design codes.

show abstract

“…In probabilistic analysis, uncertainty involved in each design parameter is assumed and categorically considered for the calculation of the reliability. Furthermore, the probability of failure occurrence for each mode and the general mode of failure can be investigated explicitly (Wu, 2015;Zevgolis and Bourdeau, 2010). The probability of failure for each mode can provide an acceptable performance-based design for geotechnical structures such as gravity retaining walls.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic study on the geometrical design of gravity retaining walls

Haddad

Eidgahee

Naderpour

2017

WJE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The purpose of this study is to introduce a relatively simple method of probabilistic analysis on the dimensions of gravity retaining walls which might lead to a more accurate understanding of failure. Considering the wall geometries in the case of allowable stress design, the probability of wall failure is not clearly defined. The available factor of safety may or may not be sufficient for the designed structure because of the inherent uncertainties in the geotechnical parameters. Moreover, two cases of correlated and uncorrelated geotechnical variables are considered to show how they affect the results. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on the failure and stability of gravity retaining walls which can be stated in three different modes of sliding, overturning and the foundation-bearing capacity failure. Each of these modes of failure might occur separately or simultaneously with a corresponding probability. Monte Carlo simulation and Taylor series method as two conventional methods of probability analysis are implemented, and the results of an assumed example are calculated and compared together. Findings The probability analysis of the failure in each mode is calculated separately and a global failure mode is introduced as the occurrence of three modes of sliding, overturning and foundation-bearing capacity failure. Results revealed that the global mode of failure can be used along with the allowable stress design to show the probability of the worst failure condition. Considering the performance and serviceability level of the retaining structure, the global failure mode can be used. Furthermore, the correlation of geotechnical variables seems to be relatively more dominant on the probability of global failure comparing to each mode of failure. Originality/value The introduced terminology of global mode of failure can be used to provide more information and confidence about the design of retaining structures. The resulted graphs maintain a thorough insight to choose the right dimensions based on the required level of safety.

show abstract

Assessing the correlated performance functions of an engineering system via probabilistic analysis

Cited by 26 publications

References 24 publications

Influence of Failure Probability Due to Parameter and Anchor Variance of a Freeway Dip Slope Slide—A Case Study in Taiwan †

Influence of Failure Probability Due to Parameter and Anchor Variance of a Freeway Dip Slope Slide—A Case Study in Taiwan †

Temperature gradient modeling of a steel box-girder suspension bridge using Copulas probabilistic method and field monitoring

A probabilistic study on the geometrical design of gravity retaining walls

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About