Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

Ruktanonchai, Nick W.; Floyd, Jessica R; Lai, Shengjie; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W.; Sadilek, Adam; Rente-Lourenco, Pedro; Ben, Xue; Carioli, Alessandra; Gwinn, Joshua; Steele, James; Prosper, Olivia; Schneider, Aaron; Oplinger, Andrew; Eastham, P. R.; Tatem, Andrew J.

doi:10.1101/2020.06.16.20132688

Cited by 73 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Several countries have achieved some control over the COVID-19 based on a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions and high levels of testing and isolation of infected people [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. However, there is a substantial risk of a resurgence of the epidemic [13][14][15]. Understanding the impacts of these interventions is critical because they will most likely continue until an effective vaccine becomes available for a substantial proportion of the population [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Asahi

Undurraga

Valdés

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background. Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly being considered as an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions. Methods. Drawing from a rich dataset of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level. Findings. Results show lockdowns were associated with a 10-15% drop in local economic activity, a two-fold reduction compared to municipalities not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than the year of the 2009 great recession. We found that costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or city-wide levels. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas; the proportional effects of lockdowns on the economy seem to be unchanged by scale.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Asahi

Undurraga

Valdés

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…As Canadian provinces and territories de-escalate their interventions, the potential for SARS-CoV-2 resurgence looms large (18). In this context, it is imperative to implement coordinated strategies that would prevent importation of cases of this magnitude in the future (19). Granular surveillance systems and epidemic intelligence will be key to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 resurgence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Importation of SARS-CoV-2 following the“semaine de relâche”and Québec’s COVID-19 burden - a mathematical modeling study

Godin

Xia

Buckeridge

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The Canadian epidemics of COVID-19 exhibit distinct early trajectories, with Québec bearing a very high initial burden. The semaine de relâche, or March break, took place two weeks earlier in Québec as compared to the rest of Canada. This event may have played a role in the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to examine the role of case importation in the early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Québec. Methods: Using detailed surveillance data, we developed and calibrated a deterministic SEIR-type compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We explored the impact of altering the number of imported cases on hospitalizations. Specifically, we investigated scenarios without case importation after March break, and as scenarios where cases were imported with the same frequency/timing as neighboring Ontario. Results: A total of 1,544 and 1,150 returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Québec and Ontario, respectively (with symptoms onset before 2020-03-25). The cumulative number of hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 51-59%) had no cases been imported after Québec's March break. However, had Québec experienced Ontario's number of imported cases, cumulative hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95%CrI: 8-16%). Interpretation: Our results suggest that case importation played an important role in the early spread of COVID-19 in Québec. Yet, heavy importation of SARS-CoV-2 in early March could be insufficient to resolve interprovincial heterogeneities in cumulative hospitalizations. The importance of other factors -public health preparedness, responses, and capacity- should be investigated.

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“…Amidst an ongoing worldwide outbreak of COVID-19, studies connecting NPIs and disease dynamics are all the more needed 1,[4][5][6][7]16 . Our results link NPIs with the substantial knowledge built around the Allee effect and tipping points in ecology 12,15,17,26,28 , and previous studies that related the saturation of NPIs, reactive individual behaviour, and positive feedbacks with disease dynamics 8,21,22,29 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This effect is a determinant of extinction-outbreak states, geographic synchronization, spatial spread, and the effect of exogenous variables, as vaccination [12][13][14][15] . As countries are relaxing containing measures, recognizing an NPI-induced Allee effect may be essential for deploying containment strategies within and among countries 16 and acknowledges the need for early warning indicators of approaching epidemic tipping points 17 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Containment to outbreak tipping points in COVID-19

Arim

Herrera-Esposito

Bermolen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been a cornerstone in managing emergent diseases such as COVID-191-4. However, despite their potential to contain or attenuate the epidemic, the effects of NPIs on disease dynamics are not well understood1,5-7. We show that saturation of NPIs with the increase in infected individuals, an expected consequence of limited contact tracing and healthcare capacities, produces a positive feedback in the disease growth rate and a threshold between two alternative states--containment and outbreak8. These alternative states were previously related with the strength of NPIs but not with the infection number2,9-11. Furthermore, the transition between these states involves an abrupt acceleration in disease dynamics, which we report here for several COVID-19 outbreaks around the world. The consequences of a positive feedback in population dynamics at low numbers is a phenomenon widely studied in ecology--the Allee effect. This effect is a determinant of extinction-outbreak states, geographic synchronization, spatial spread, and the effect of exogenous variables, as vaccination12-15. As countries are relaxing containing measures, recognizing an NPI-induced Allee effect may be essential for deploying containment strategies within and among countries16 and acknowledges the need for early warning indicators of approaching epidemic tipping points17.

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Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe

Cited by 73 publications

References 33 publications

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Importation of SARS-CoV-2 following the“semaine de relâche”and Québec’s COVID-19 burden - a mathematical modeling study

Containment to outbreak tipping points in COVID-19

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