The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Asahi, Kenzo; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Valdés, Rodrigo; Wagner, Rodrigo

doi:10.1101/2020.09.21.20198887

Cited by 18 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Several socioeconomic, demographic, and political factors make control of the pandemic in Latin America particularly challenging [ 22 – 25 ]. Most countries in the region are now facing the stark social and economic costs imposed by large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions while largely failing to control the epidemic's spread [ 13 , 24 , 26 ]. Despite these unique conditions, the region has received relatively little attention from researchers globally [ 19 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

et al. 2021

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Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile’s incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

et al. 2021

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“…Comparing the evolution of individuals in the same municipalities may alleviate concerns about localized lockdowns implemented at the municipality-level. These lockdowns may affect people differently, depending on the district where they live [6]. Although one can imagine several reasons why these two populations may differ, such as the type of employment, the magnitude of the difference shows that unemployment affected informal dwellers more severely.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In mid-May, Greater Santiago (∼40% of the Chilean population) was put under lockdown, and by mid-June, half the population in Chile was under lockdown [40]. Research suggests that these mitigation strategies significantly slowed down epidemic growth [42] but generated a large drop in mobility and economic activity [6,43]. The reduction in economic activity does not affect all social groups in the same way, which calls for research on the impact on vulnerable populations such as those in informal settlements.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in Urban Informal Settlements

Gil

Domínguez

Undurraga

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic has reached almost every corner of the world. Without a pharmaceutical solution, governments have been forced to implement regulations and public policies to control social behavior and prevent the spread of the virus. There is dramatic evidence of the social and economic effects of these measures and their disparate impact on vulnerable communities. Individuals living in urban informal settlements are in a structurally disadvantaged position to cope with a health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the socioeconomic impact of the crisis brought by the pandemic in informal settlements in Chile. We use a three-wave panel study to compare the situation in informal settlements before and during the health crisis. We show that households living in informal settlements are paying a high toll. Their employment loss is dramatic, substantially larger than the loss reported in the general population, and has particularly affected the inmigrant population. We also find that the pandemic has triggered neighborhood cooperation within the settlements. Targeted government assistance programs have reached these communities; however, this group’s coverage is not enough to counteract the magnitude of the crisis. Our results suggest that governments, the non-profit sector, and the community need to urgently provide economic support and protections to individuals living in informal settlements and consider this opportunity for long-term improvements in these marginalized communities.HighlightsGovernments have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemicThese measures have had dramatic social and economic effects on the population, particularly affecting vulnerable communitiesIndividuals living in urban informal settlements are in a structurally disadvantaged position to cope with this crisisUsing panel data, we document a dramatic employment loss among informal settlements dwellers, substantially larger than the general populationThe pandemic has also triggered neighborhood cooperation within the settlements as well as targeted government assistance, but not enough to counteract the magnitude of the economic loss

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“…The inverse proportionality coefficient, the mitigation readiness H , determines the height of mitigation costs perceived by a society in units of the mortality rate. Delayed and accumulating impacts on societal, economic, and psychological well-being [ 55,53,56,54 ] and consequential shifts in prioritization are here captured by a steady decrease of H at the “degradation” rate r H , activated on the day t reset when net infection at low case numbers returns from a negative to a positive rate after the first lockdown, with reduction factor c H . The functional form derives from inverting (cf.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline in mitigation readiness facilitated second waves ofSARS-CoV-2

2021

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Societal responses crucially shape the course of a pandemics but are difficult to predict. Mitigation dynamics is introduced here as an integral part of an epidemiological model, which is applied to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Unperturbed simulations accurately reproduce diverse epidemic and social response trajectories from 2020 to 2021 reported from 11 European countries, Iran, and 8 US states. High regional variability in the severity and duration of the spring lockdown and in peak mortality rates of the first SARS-CoV-2 wave can be explained by differences in mitigation readiness H which is here mathematically defined as the value of human lives in relation to business-as-usual contact rates. H entails a suite of political, social, and psychological aspects of decision making. The simulations also suggest that a subsequent decrease in H much intensified the second wave and slowed down its decay. With less effective lockdowns, vaccination became the primary mitigation strategy in 2021. Retardation of vaccination relative to a 3-month scheme is projected to provoke an average toll of 1.5 deaths per million and delayed day. This toll particularly rises in regions with high numbers of old and still susceptible people, which is relevant for revising current policies of vaccine distribution.

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The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns

Cited by 18 publications

References 48 publications

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020

The Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 in Urban Informal Settlements

Decline in mitigation readiness facilitated second waves ofSARS-CoV-2

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