Assessing the impact of EI Niño southern oscillation index and land surface temperature fluctuations on dengue fever outbreaks using ARIMAX(p)-PARX(p)-NBARX(p) models

Abbas, Shujaat; Ilyas, Muhammad

doi:10.1007/s12517-018-4119-9

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Similarly, Beck et al demonstrated that temperature fluctuation was significantly connected with malaria within the malaria transmission zone in sub-Saharan Africa 20 . Meanwhile, Abbas et al found that, in Karachi, temperature fluctuation presented significantly association with dengue fever 21 . Additionally, Joshi et al presented that, in Korea, temperature fluctuation closely related to hemorrhagic fever 22 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), predominantly occurs among infants and children. Previous studies have shown that suitable, stable temperatures favor HFMD virus reproduction; however, temperature fluctuations also affect virus transmission, and there are, so far, no studies concerning the association between such fluctuations and the incidence of HFMD. The objective of this study was to map the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD incidence and quantify the long-term effects of temperature fluctuations on HFMD incidence in children. HFMD cases in children under five, from January 2009 to December 2013, in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces of China, were used in this study. The GeoDetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchy models were employed to explore the spatial-temporal association between temperature fluctuations and HFMD incidence. The results indicate that HFMD incidence had significant spatial stratified heterogeneity (GeoDetector qstatistic = 0.83, p < 0.05), and that areas with higher risk mainly appeared in metropolises and their adjacent regions. HFMD transmission was negatively associated with temperature fluctuations. A 1 °C increase in the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures was associated with decreases of 8.22% and 11.87% in the risk of HFMD incidence, respectively. The study suggests that large temperature fluctuations affect virus growth or multiplication, thereby inhibiting the activity of the virus and potentially even leading to its extinction, and consequently affecting the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD. The findings can serve as a reference for the practical control of this disease and offer help in the rational allocation of medical resources.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Furthermore, environmental variables obtained through remote sensing were also explored in a relevant number of studies. The most common were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (42)(43)(44), vegetation index (45), enhanced vegetation index (46), smoothed vegetation index, smoothed brightness temperature index, vegetation condition index, vegetation health index (44), land surface temperature (43,46,47), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) (48). In the studies of ( 47) and ( 44), the authors included information on the EL Ninõ phenomenon as well as (47)-that included variables related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation Index-and (44)-that included the Oceanic Niño Index variable in their model.…”

Section: Arboviruses (Counts) Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning: A Systematic Review

Lima

Silva

Moreno

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Arboviruses are a group of diseases that are transmitted by an arthropod vector. Since they are part of the Neglected Tropical Diseases that pose several public health challenges for countries around the world. The arboviruses' dynamics are governed by a combination of climatic, environmental, and human mobility factors. Arboviruses prediction models can be a support tool for decision-making by public health agents. In this study, we propose a systematic literature review to identify arboviruses prediction models, as well as models for their transmitter vector dynamics. To carry out this review, we searched reputable scientific bases such as IEE Xplore, PubMed, Science Direct, Springer Link, and Scopus. We search for studies published between the years 2015 and 2020, using a search string. A total of 429 articles were returned, however, after filtering by exclusion and inclusion criteria, 139 were included. Through this systematic review, it was possible to identify the challenges present in the construction of arboviruses prediction models, as well as the existing gap in the construction of spatiotemporal models.

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Application of hybrid conceptual-statistical model to estimate streamflow with consideration of groundwater variation

Kazemi

Shao

Sarukkalige

2022

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Assessing the impact of EI Niño southern oscillation index and land surface temperature fluctuations on dengue fever outbreaks using ARIMAX(p)-PARX(p)-NBARX(p) models

Cited by 6 publications

References 19 publications

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Effects of temperature fluctuations on spatial-temporal transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Temporal and Spatiotemporal Arboviruses Forecasting by Machine Learning: A Systematic Review

Application of hybrid conceptual-statistical model to estimate streamflow with consideration of groundwater variation

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