Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

Abstract

An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions.

A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of flood management measures based on the concept of "retaining water in the landscape" in different European hydro-climatic regions

“…Also, an approach to assess the effects of different land covers on model outputs was given by Eckhardt et al (2003). Methods to ensemble different models were presented by Huisman et al (2009) where the probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the land use scenario predictions. The latter has become standard practice in analysis of predictions of future climate.…”

“…A way to demonstrate the model transferability should be implemented using data from a wide range of climatic conditions and with an ensemble of different models or, possibly, with an ensemble of a given model using different parameter sets (Duan et al, 2006). Huisman et al (2009) applied an ensemble of hydrological models to analyse the same set of land use change scenarios, increasing their confidence in the scenario predictions. However, they suggest its use in a well-instrumented catchment that has experienced, or is still experiencing, land use change.…”

Optimization of Land Use Pattern Reduces Surface Runoff and Sediment Loss in a Hilly-Gully Watershed at the Loess Plateau, China

“…The main causes of watershed hydrologic features change are climate change and human activity (Asbjornsen et al, 2011;Hörmann et al, 2005;Huisman et al, 2009;Kezer & Matsuyama, 2006). Climate change influences evapotranspiration form of underlying surface by changing atmospheric temperature and precipitation, and then, severe impacts internal water circulation.…”

Effects of changes in land use and climate on water availability of a tropical catchment

“…Models can be used to assess impacts of historic as well as future land use changes on hydrological conditions (Thanapakpawin et al, 2007;Huisman et al, 2009). A wide range of models has been used to simulate land use change impacts on the water balance, e.g.…”

“…Niehoff et al, 2002;Ashagrie et al, 2006;Menzel et al, 2009;Suarez et al, 2013) and multiple models (ensemble modeling) (e.g. Huisman et al, 2009). Most studies found that, at the local scale, effects of land use change on hydrological processes are more pronounced than the effects of climate change (Bosch and Hewlett, 1982;Brown et al, 2005Brown et al, , O'connell et al, 2007Wohl et al, 2012;Gallo et al, 2015).…”