Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources in the Nile Basin using a regional climate model ensemble

Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens Kristian; Antar, M A; Sanderson, Michael; Butts, M. B.; Palin, Erika J.; McCarthy, Rachel; Jones, R. G.; Betts, Richard

doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/29/292017

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These five were chosen to sample the spread of model simulations in the present-day climate as evenly as possible. A description of the methodology followed can be found in Buontempo et al (2010b).…”

Section: (Iii) Rcm Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

Hemming

Buontempo

Burke

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between −5 and −25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections-Atmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

show abstract

Section: (Iii) Rcm Ensemblementioning

confidence: 99%

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

Hemming

Buontempo

Burke

et al. 2010

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Yang and Arritt, 2002;Lynn et al, 2008;Sterl et al, 2008;Yokohata et al, 2010;Fischer et al, 2010;Klocke et al, 2011;Sanderson, 2011). PPEs can be performed with RCMs, but their computational expense limits them to small ensemble size Buontempo et al, 2009), short simulation length (Yang and Arritt, 2002) or both (Lynn et al, 2008). PPEs are also generated with simpler, lower-resolution models, such as EMICs, but these typically focus on global mean temperature rather than regional patterns or extremes.…”

Section: Model Parameter Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards

Edwards¹,

Challenor²

2013

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Regional climate or hydrologic models have been used to estimate Nile River streamflow (Gleick, 1991;Hulme, 1994;Conway and Hulme, 1996;Yates and Strzepek, 1998;Strzepek et al, 2001;Eldaw et al, 2003;Buontempo et al, 2009;Elshamy et al, 2009;Booij et al, 2011), even though the outputted precipitation and subsequent streamflow predictions have large temporal and spatial uncertainty (Hulme et al, 2001;Buontempo et al, 2009). The multi-model approach compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates rising temperatures throughout the Nile Basin and substantial uncertainty in future precipitation patterns (Conway, 2005;Beyene et al, 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution of δ2H and δ18O values in the hydrologic cycle of the Nile Basin

Langman

2014

J. Arid Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Existing δ 2 H and δ 18 O values for precipitation and surface water in the Nile Basin were used to analyze precipitation inputs and the influence of evaporation on the isotopic signal of the Nile River and its tributaries. The goal of the data analysis was to better understand basin processes that influence seasonal streamflow for the source waters of the Nile River, because climate and hydrologic models have continued to produce high uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and streamflow in the Nile Basin. An evaluation of differences in precipitation δ 2 H and δ 18 O values through linear regression and distribution analysis indicate variation by region and season in the isotopic signal of precipitation across the Nile Basin. The White Nile Basin receives precipitation with a more depleted isotopic signal compared to the Blue Nile Basin. The hot temperatures of the Sahelian spring produce a greater evaporation signal in the precipitation isotope distribution compared to precipitation in the Sahara/Mediterranean region, which can be influenced by storms moving in from the Mediterranean Sea. The larger evaporative effect is reversed for the two regions in summer because of the cooling of the Sahel from inflow of Indian Ocean monsoon moisture that predominantly influences the climate of the Blue Nile Basin. The regional precipitation isotopic signals convey to each region's streamflow, which is further modified by additional evaporation according to the local climate. Isotope ratios for White Nile streamflow are significantly altered by evaporation in the Sudd, but this isotopic signal is minimized for streamflow in the Nile River during the winter, spring and summer seasons because of the flow dominance of the Blue Nile. During fall, the contribution from the White Nile may exceed that of the Blue Nile, and the heavier isotopic signal of the White Nile becomes apparent. The variation in climatic conditions of the Nile River Basin provides a means of identifying mechanistic processes through changes in isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen, which have utility for separating precipitation origin and the effect of evaporation during seasonal periods. The existing isotope record for precipitation and streamflow in the Nile Basin can be used to evaluate predicted streamflow in the Nile River from a changing climate that is expected to induce further changes in precipitation patterns across the Nile Basin.

show abstract

Assessing the impacts of climate change on the water resources in the Nile Basin using a regional climate model ensemble

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

Risk and uncertainty in hydrometeorological hazards

Spatial distribution of δ2H and δ18O values in the hydrologic cycle of the Nile Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About