Assessing the Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis and Swine Flu on Inbound Tourism Demand in the United Kingdom

Page, Stephen J.; Song, Haiyan; Wu, Doris Chenguang

doi:10.1177/0047287511400754

Cited by 233 publications

(166 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The TVP technique has been applied to tourism demand analysis (e.g. Page et al, 2012) and in conjunction with other advanced econometric techniques to develop more sophisticated models such as the TVP-STS (Song et al, 2011a) (Wu et al, 2012a).…”

Section: Econometric Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

Song

Shen

2017

IJCHM

Self Cite

253

217

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Design/Methodology/approachArticles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. FindingsThis review finds that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior, and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implicationsThis review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/valueThe value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

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Section: Econometric Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

Song

Shen

2017

IJCHM

Self Cite

253

217

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“…Though estimates vary depending on the size of the affected population and duration of closure, school closures have been estimated to cost from tens to hundreds of millions of dollars [109]. The pandemic also negatively affected global tourism [110], with airlines reporting losses in the tens of millions [105]. It is difficult, however, to disentangle swine flu’s role in this decline, as the global economic crisis of 2008 was occurring simultaneously.…”

Section: 2009–2010: Swine Flumentioning

confidence: 99%

Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

2016

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For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop.

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“…Many authors have acknowledged the importance of applying new approaches to tourism demand forecasting in order to improve the accuracy of the methods of analysis (Song, Li 2008). The availability of more advanced forecasting techniques has led to a growing interest Artificial Intelligence (AI) models (Yu, Schwartz 2006;Goh et al 2008;Lin et al 2011;Chen 2011;Celotto et al 2012;Wu et al 2012;Cang, Yu 2014) to the detriment of time series models (Chu 2008(Chu , 2011Assaf et al 2011) and causal econometric models (Page et al 2012). Some of the new AI based techniques are fuzzy time series models (Tsaur, Kuo 2011), genetic algorithms (Hadavandi et al 2011), expert systems (Shahrabi et al 2013;Pai et al 2014) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (Chen, Wang 2007;Hong et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data Pre-Processing for Neural Network-Based Forecasting: Does It Really Matter?

Clavería

Monte

Porras

2015

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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Abstract.This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the forecasting performance of neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to predict tourist demand: multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function and Elman neural networks. The structure of the networks is based on a multiple-output approach. We use official statistical data of inbound international tourism demand to Catalonia (Spain) and compare the forecasting accuracy of four processing methods for the input vector of the networks: levels, growth rates, seasonally adjusted levels and seasonally adjusted growth rates. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different inputs for each visitor market and for different forecasting horizons, we obtain significantly better forecasts with levels than with growth rates. We also find that seasonally adjusted series significantly improve the forecasting performance of the networks, which hints at the significance of deseasonalizing the time series when using neural networks with forecasting purposes. These results reveal that, when using seasonal data, neural networks performance can be significantly improved by working directly with seasonally adjusted levels.Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, multiple-output, seasonality, detrending, tourism demand, multilayer perceptron, radial basis function, Elman JEL classification: L83, C53, C45, R11 IntroductionInternational tourism has become one of today's fastest growing industries. Tourism accounts for almost 10% of total international trade and plays a fundamental role in the long-run economic development of many regions (Akkemik 2012;Sigala, Chalkiti 2014). To achieve a sustainable tourism model, policy makers and professionals need more accurate predictions of the number of tourist arrivals at the destination level. Many authors have acknowledged the importance of applying new approaches to tourism demand forecasting in order to improve the accuracy of the methods of analysis (Song, Li 2008). The availability of more advanced forecasting techniques has led to a growing interest Artificial Intelligence (AI) models (Yu, Schwartz 2006;Goh et al. 2008;Lin et al. 2011;Chen 2011;Celotto et al. 2012;Wu et al. 2012;Cang, Yu 2014) to the detriment of time series models (Chu 2008(Chu , 2011Assaf et al. 2011) and causal econometric models (Page et al. 2012). Some of the new AI based techniques are fuzzy time series models (Tsaur, Kuo 2011), genetic algorithms (Hadavandi et al. 2011), expert systems (Shahrabi et al. 2013;Pai et al. 2014) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (Chen, Wang 2007;Hong et al. 2011). Recent research has shown the suitability of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for dealing with tourism demand forecasting (Teixeira, Fernandes 2012;Claveria, Torra 2014).In spite of the successful use of ANNs for time series forecasting, very few studies compare the accuracy of different NN architectures for tourism demand forecasting at a regional level. The present study deals with tourist a...

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Assessing the Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis and Swine Flu on Inbound Tourism Demand in the United Kingdom

Cited by 233 publications

References 21 publications

New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting

Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

Data Pre-Processing for Neural Network-Based Forecasting: Does It Really Matter?

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