Assessing The Level Of Macroeconomic Stability Of EU Countries

Abstract

This article is devoted to the development of methods for assessing the integrated level of macroeconomic stability of the country. Systematization of literature sources and approaches to determining the factors influencing macroeconomic stability and methods of its assessment showed that this problem is still unresolved and needs attention, given the epidemiological threats as additional factors destabilizing the world economy. The urgency of solving this scientific problem lies in need of an adequate and timely response to changes in the development of the national economy to prevent them from escalating into crisis phenomena. The study of assessing the integrated level of macroeconomic stability in the country was carried out in the article in the following logical sequence: 1) the formation of the statistical base of the study in terms of three groups of indicators: stimulants, disincentives and nominators; 2) bringing the indicators of the statistical input base of the study to a comparable form; 3) determining the priority of the impact of the components of the indicator in the integrated indicator; 4) assessment of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability, considering both the ranking of input indicators and the strength of their impact on the formation of the desired integrated indicator; 5) conducting a qualitative interpretation of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability. The methodological tools of the study were the following methods: minimax approach to the normalization of the statistical base of the study; sigma-limited parameterization method and Pareto method for determining the priority of the impact of the components of the indicators of the integrated level of macroeconomic stability; Erlang’s formula for estimating the integrated level of macroeconomic stability. The study period was 2006-2019. The countries selected for the study were the following: Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia. The article presents the results of the assessment of the integrated indicator, which showed that Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic and Poland achieved macroeconomic stability on average from 2014 at 84%, Slovakia – 65%, while Hungary had relative stability from 2010 to 2016, at the level of 76-82%, but in 2017-2018 there is a destabilization of economic development to 45%. The results of the study can be useful for public authorities in determining macroeconomic stability as an element of national economic management, the use of which will protect against financial and economic crises by taking a set of preventive measures. Keywords: Pareto diagram, macroeconomic stability, minimax approach, ranking, sigma-limited parameterization, Erlang’s formula.

The impact of digital transformation on macroeconomic stability: Evidence from EU countries

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The impact of tax gap on macroeconomic stability: Assessment using panel VEC approach

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Neural network modeling of the economic and social development trajectory transformation due to quarantine restrictions during COVID-19

“…The comparison of socio-economic development of individual regions, which are differently susceptible to such crises and form different resulting actions on the directed influence, is of particular importance (Bazyliuk et al, 2019;Kryshtanovych et al, 2020;Haller, 2020;Mikhaylova et al, 2019;Afanasyev et al, 2020;Dinu et al, 2020;Iacobuta et al, 2019;Semenenko et al, 2019;Harust et al, 2019;Vysochyna et al, 2020;Mikhnevych et al, 2020 Deyneka et al, 2019;Medani, 2020;Balas and Kaya, 2019;Yelnikova and Miskiewicz, 2020;Dave, 2019;Marcel, 2019;Hashim et al, 2018;Kuzmenko et al, 2020;Djalilov et al, 2015). Attention is paid to the calculation of these impact limits in different activities (Mach, 2019;Moyo, 2020;Sawangchai, 2020;Przytuła et al, 2020;Raychev et al, 2020;Kowo et al, 2020;Jafarzadeh and He, 2019;Greco, 2018;Yiu et al, 2020;Dutta et al, 2020;Lopez and Alcaide, 2020;Kouassi, 2018) or in different countries and in the world as a whole (Sułkowski, 2020;Nagy and Kiss, 2018;Zolkover and Renkas, 2020). In particular, Kuc-Czarnecka (2020) examines specific aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact through the example of Poland, identifying particularly vulnerable areas due to infrastructural deficiencies.…”