Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí A.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2896

Cited by 98 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Impacts of multi-decadal trends in climate have now been detected in many different aspects of natural and human systems across the continents and oceans of the planet 6 . Analysis of the relevant climate trends suggests that anthropogenic emissions have played a major role in at least two thirds of the impacts induced by warming, but few of the impacts resulting from precipitation trends can yet be confidently linked to anthropogenic emissions 7 . Overall, research on detection and attribution of climate change impacts is still emerging and there remain few studies available that demonstrate a causal link between anthropogenic emissions, climate trends and impacts.…”

Section: End Text Box 1: Justice Principles Relevant For Climate Chanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a general guideline, changes in many physical, terrestrial and marine ecosystems are strongly governed by climatic drivers such as regional changes in average or extreme air temperature, precipitation, or ocean water temperature. Due to the high likelihood of a major anthropogenic role in observed trends in these regional climate drivers, there is accordingly potential for high confidence in detection and attribution of related impacts of anthropogenic climate change 7 .…”

Section: Liability and Compensationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Claims for compensation, occasionally also called climate 'reparations' 4 , raise the question of who is responsible for which negative climate change impacts, how to define such responsibilities and on the basis of what type of evidence. Scientific evidence has become increasingly available from recent studies and assessments, termed "detection and attribution of climate change impacts", revealing numerous discernable impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems worldwide [5][6][7] . In some cases, these impacts have been found to be substantial, but often the effects of multiple non-climatic drivers ('confounders') acting on natural and especially human and managed systems (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

et al. 2016

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International audienceThe Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it

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Section: End Text Box 1: Justice Principles Relevant For Climate Chanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Liability and Compensationmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

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“…La mayoría de los modelos climáticos predicen para los próximos cien años un incremento de la temperatura superficial del agua del mar de 3ºC, un descenso del pH de 0,3 unidades, ampliación de las áreas donde las concentraciones de oxígeno por debajo de la capa de mezcla son inferiores a 30 mmol kg -1 y una disminución de la salinidad de los océanos, que a su vez producirá una estratificación de las masas de agua (Nye 2010, Hansen & Stone 2015. Probablemente, estos cambios tendrían un efecto inmediato sobre la producción primaria, con efectos en cascada a lo largo de la cadena trófica.…”

Section: Túnidos Tropicalesunclassified

Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

Báez

Pascual-Alayón

Ramos

et al. 2019

Rev. biol. mar. oceanogr.

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The term 'tropical tuna' refers to skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), which have a wide pantropical distribution. Tropical tunas inhabit waters with a sea surface temperature with an optimal value around 20°C. Currently, two of these species are among the 7 species with higher landings worldwide. In addition, it is expected that future tropical tuna stocks play a key role safeguarding food security. The aim of this paper was to review the studies about the effect of both climatic oscillations and global warming on tropical tuna populations. Moreover, it warns about the main challenges of fisheries biology in relation to the management of stocks of tropical tunas, an important fishery resource, in the context of climate change. For this, a review of studies that have addressed to date the effect of both climate oscillations and global warming on populations of tropical tunas was performed.

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“…This is attributed to high levels of exposure to hazards (Solomon and Forbes 1999;Noy 2015) coupled with a range of vulnerabilities that include low economic development, weak formal governance structures and social protection, and a dependence on exposed assets and entire industries, such as agriculture and fisheries, that are crucial for livelihoods (Barnett 2010;Connell 2010Connell , 2015Cobon et al 2016). Climate change also poses a greater risk of hazards in the South Pacific: increasing intensity of cyclones (despite a possible decrease in the number (Knutson et al 2010;Walsh 2015); sea level rise; an increased frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles (Cai et al 2014); changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, among others (Hansen and Stone 2015). Faced with these present and future threats, improving the management of ''natural disasters'' has become a central theme in policy throughout the South Pacific, including Vanuatu where this research is based.…”

Section: South Pacific Disaster Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Disaster Vulnerability in a Small Island in the Southwest Pacific: A Case Study of Emae Island, Vanuatu

Jackson

McNamara

Witt

2017

Int J Disaster Risk Sci

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The societal costs of disasters around the world are continuing to increase and Pacific Island countries are considered some of the most vulnerable. This is primarily due to a combination of high hazard exposure coupled with a range of social, economic, physical, and political vulnerabilities. This article contributes to the growing body of work that aims to understand the causal factors of disaster vulnerability, but with a specific focus on small island developing states. The article first develops a framework for understanding disaster vulnerability, drawing on extensive literature and the well-established Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability in Europe (MOVE) framework, and second, applies this adapted framework using empirically-derived data from fieldwork on Emae Island, Vanuatu to provide a working understanding of the causal elements of disaster vulnerability. Drawn from a significant body of scholarship at the time, the MOVE framework was primarily developed as a heuristic tool in which disaster vulnerability is considered to be a function of exposure, susceptibility (socially, economically, physically, culturally, environmentally, institutionally), and a lack of resilience. We posit that this adapted framework for small islands should also include historical susceptibility, and we prefer livelihood resilience (as capabilities, social capital, knowledge, participation, and human rights) over lack of resilience. We maintain that understanding disaster vulnerability holistically, which is inclusive of both strengths and drawbacks, is crucial to ensure that limited resources can target the causal factors that produce vulnerability and help safeguard and improve livelihoods in both the short and long term.

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Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 98 publications

References 31 publications

Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

Túnidos tropicales: calentamiento global y seguridad alimentaria, una visión global

A Framework for Disaster Vulnerability in a Small Island in the Southwest Pacific: A Case Study of Emae Island, Vanuatu

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