Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 Omicron variant: Insight through a fractional piecewise model

Li, Xiaoping; DarAssi, Mahmoud H.; Khan, Muhammad Altaf; Chukwu, C. W.; Alshahrani, Mohammad Y.; Shahrani, Mesfer Al; Riaz, Muhammad Bilal

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105652

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(40 reference statements)

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“…The multivariant model provides, to the best of our knowledge, one of the most detailed descriptions of the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic for an African country and is unique as it allows for the description of multiple waves and the variant replacement dynamics. Many of the important studies on African countries presented so far focus on individual waves 19 – 21 , a specific variant replacement event 22 , 23 , or do not explicitly account for variants 24 , 25 . Here, we showed that our model provides a new way to assess pathways of infections and vaccinations as well as cross-immunity between variants with low prediction uncertainties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity

Merkt,

Ali,

Gudina

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity

Merkt,

Ali,

Gudina

et al. 2024

Nat Commun

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“…Mathematicians thus developed the idea of differentiation with non-local operators to address this issue. Researchers have demonstrated that the memory effect of fractional calculus produces more accurate results when predicting physical systems, including mathematical models [16]. In order to solve systems of differential equations of both integer and non-integer orders resulting from real-life issues, such as applications related to integrodifferential equations [17,18], mathematical epidemiology [19,20], and economic and financial [21,22], new discoveries have resulted from advances in constructing new fractional order operators, especially Caputo, Atangana-Baleanu, and Caputo-Fabrizio.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fractional Order Mathematical Modelling of HFMD Transmission via Caputo Derivative

Mohandoss,

Chandrasekar,

Meetei

et al. 2024

Axioms

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This paper studies a nonlinear fractional mathematical model for hand, foot, and mouth Disease (HFMD), incorporating a vaccinated compartment. Our initial focus involves establishing the non-negativity and boundedness of the fractional order dynamical model. The existence and uniqueness of the system are discussed using the Caputo derivative operator formulation. Applying a fixed-point approach, we obtain results that confirm the presence of at least one solution. We analyze the stability behavior at the two equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic states) of the model and derive the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulations are conducted using the fractional Euler approach, and the simulation results confirm our analytical conclusions. This comprehensive approach enhances the understanding of HFMD dynamics and facilitates the policy making of health care centers to control the further spread of this disease.

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“…Since the COVID-19 outbreak, policymakers have turned to mathematicians in predicting cases and crafting strategies that can mitigate the spread of infection [ [7] , [8] , [9] ]. There are numerous modelling studies considering COVID-19 variants [ [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] , [14] ]. However, only a few published works tackle the lifting of the mask mandate considering the Omicron variant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

Mendoza

et al. 2023

Heliyon

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Assessing the potential impact of COVID-19 Omicron variant: Insight through a fractional piecewise model

Cited by 12 publications

References 38 publications

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity

Fractional Order Mathematical Modelling of HFMD Transmission via Caputo Derivative

Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model

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