Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the data-scarce Upper Ruvu River watershed, Tanzania

Tibangayuka, Nickson; Mulungu, Deogratias M.M.; Izdori, Fides

doi:10.2166/wcc.2022.208

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(41 reference statements)

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“…Thus, in this study to predict the impact of changing climate on the SF for the future period, three GCMs (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, and CanESM5) from CMIP6 were employed under three different scenarios (ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585). Additionally, the findings of this study agree with those of previous related studies [57,58].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Understanding the Climate Change and Land Use Impact on Streamflow in the Present and Future under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios for the Parvara Mula Basin, India

Mohseni

Agnihotri

Pande

et al. 2023

Water

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Understanding the likely impacts of climate change (CC) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) on water resources (WR) is critical for a water basin’s mitigation. The present study intends to quantify the impact of (CC) and (LULC) on the streamflow (SF) of the Parvara Mula Basin (PMB) using SWAT. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP) for the two time periods (2003–2007 and 2013–2016) and (2008–2010 and 2017–2018), respectively. To evaluate the model’s performance, statistical matrices such as R2, NSE, PBIAS, and RSR were computed for both the calibrated and validated periods. For both these periods, the calibrated and validated results of the model were found to be very good. In this study, three bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, and CanESM5) under three scenarios (ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585) have been adopted by assuming no change in the existing LULC (2018). The results obtained from the SWAT simulation at the end of the century show that there will be an increase in streamflow (SF) by 44.75% to 53.72%, 45.80% to 77.31%, and 48.51% to 83.12% according to ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, and CanESM5, respectively. A mean ensemble model was created to determine the net change in streamflow under different scenarios for different future time projections. The results obtained from the mean ensembled model also reveal an increase in the SF for the near future (2020–2040), mid future (2041–2070), and far future (2071–2100) to be 64.19%, 47.33%, and 70.59%, respectively. Finally, based on the obtained results, it was concluded that the CanESM5 model produces better results than the ACCESS-CM2 and BCC-CSM2-MR models. As a result, the streamflow evaluated with this model can be used for the PMB’s future water management strategies. Thus, this study’s findings may be helpful in developing water management strategies and preventing the pessimistic effect of CC in the PMB.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Understanding the Climate Change and Land Use Impact on Streamflow in the Present and Future under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios for the Parvara Mula Basin, India

Mohseni

Agnihotri

Pande

et al. 2023

Water

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“…The most sensitive parameters reported in this study are the Curve Number, lag time and the flood wave travel time factors for flood peak, while only the Curve Number parameter was found to be sensitive for flood runoff volume. These findings could be compared to other studies that reported the percent impervious followed by the groundwater coefficient to be the most sensitive parameters [82,83]. Ref.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 73%

Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Souley Tangam,

Yonaba,

Niang

et al. 2024

Hydrology

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This study focuses on the Sirba River Basin (SRB), a transboundary West African catchment of 38,950 km2 shared by Burkina Faso and Niger, which contributes to flooding downstream in Niamey (Niger). The study uses the HEC-HMS hydrological model to explore the dynamics of the daily rainfall–runoff relationship over the period 2006–2020. The model is calibrated using observed rainfall at 13 meteorological stations within the river basin and observed discharges at the Garbey Kourou hydrometric station outlet. Two types of simulation are compared: (i) a continuous simulation (CS) over the period 2006–2020 and (ii) an event-based simulation (ES) using selected major flood events in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2020. The results showed satisfactory model performance under both modeling schemes (R2 = 0.84–0.87 for CS and R2 = 0.94–0.98 for ES), with a superior performance of ES over CS. Also, significant differences in the distribution of calibrated model parameters for the percent impervious and the attenuation flood wave factor were observed. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the curve number, initial abstraction, lag time and routing time factors were influential on the model outputs. The study therefore underscores the model’s robustness and contributes crucial insights for flood control management and infrastructure planning in the SRB.

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“…However, few have performed the statistical downscaling in Tanzania for hydrological impact assessment (Ayugi et al, 2021;Shagega et al, 2019;Tibangayuka et al, 2022;Wambura, 2014). However, most of these studies were carried out at the regional level, which are less relevant for planning and managing water resource infrastructures at the catchment scale (Pachauri & Meyer, 2014).…”

Section: Climate Change and Climate Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrologic responses to climate and land use/cover changes in world heritage site of Ngorongoro conservation area and surrounding catchments, northern Tanzania

Mwabumba

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In Tanzania, various studies have analyzed the impact of climate and land use/cover changes on water resources. However, information on the interactions between climate and land use/cover change, temporal and spatial variability of hydrological components and water quality at the local scale is insufficient. The objective of this study was to evaluate the hydrological response to climate and land use/cover changes in Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) and surroundings. The study performed climate change analysis using outputs from a multi-model ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs). The CA–Markov model applied to project Land use/cover for the future 2025 and 2035. This study further used the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modelling approaches to analyse the hydrological responses and HYDRUS 1D to determine the change in Groundwater quality due to climate and land use/cover changes. The analysis of climate change between historical period (1982-2011) and future period (2021-2050) indicated an increase in the mean annual rainfall and temperature, seasonal rainfall except June to September (JJAS) season which showed a decreasing trend. Spatially, rainfall and temperatures would increase over the entire area. The projected Land use/cover change for the period 2025 to 2035 compared to the baseline 2016, showed a reduction in bushland, forest, water, and woodland, but an intensification in cultivated land, grassland, bare land, and the built-up area. The surface runoff, evapotranspiration, lateral flow, and water yield would significantly increase in the future, while groundwater would decrease under combined climate and land use/cover change. It is predicted that two anions (Cl− and PO4 −3 ) and two cations (Na+ and K+ ) would exceed the permissible limits for the drinking water set by the World Health organisation (WHO) and Tanzania Bureau of Standards (TBS), from 2036 to 2050. Changes in groundwater quality due to major cations and anions is significantly correlated to evapotranspiration and temperature with Pearson correlation (r) between 0.35 and 0.85. Furthermore, correlate to the changes in all land use/ cover types with Pearson correlation (r) between 0.56 and 0.96. The results obtained provide further insight into future water resources management planning and adaptation strategie

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Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the data-scarce Upper Ruvu River watershed, Tanzania

Cited by 13 publications

References 29 publications

Understanding the Climate Change and Land Use Impact on Streamflow in the Present and Future under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios for the Parvara Mula Basin, India

Understanding the Climate Change and Land Use Impact on Streamflow in the Present and Future under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios for the Parvara Mula Basin, India

Daily Simulation of the Rainfall–Runoff Relationship in the Sirba River Basin in West Africa: Insights from the HEC-HMS Model

Hydrologic responses to climate and land use/cover changes in world heritage site of Ngorongoro conservation area and surrounding catchments, northern Tanzania

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