Assessing the relative effects of emissions, climate means, and variability on large water supply systems

Whateley, Sarah; Brown, Casey

doi:10.1002/2016gl070241

Cited by 21 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Most of the 50 GCMs expected that ρ s at the sub-basin 3001 would be greater than 0.95 for 2020-2039. This type of response surfaces between expected performance and hypothetical climatic stresses have been commonly used in the decision-centric assessments (e.g., Brown et al, 2012;Whateley et al, 2014;Turner et al, 2014). Figure 3c indicates that ρ s at the subbasin 3001 could be less than 0.95 if P avg decreases by approximately 30 %.…”

Section: Water Supply Performance At the Sub-basinsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The stochastic weather generator (WG) by Steinschneider and Brown (2013) was employed to produce plausible daily precipitation and temperature sequences with climatic perturbations (i.e., generating climate stresses). Several bottom-up assessments successfully used this model to evaluate performance of hydrologic systems under varying climate stresses (e.g., Whateley et al, 2014;Steinschneider et al, 2015b). The semi-parametric WG combines two stochastic models.…”

Section: Generating Climate-stress-induced Weather Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To overcome the weakness of GCM-driven assessments in practical decision support, alternative frameworks within the "robust decision" paradigm have emerged (e.g., Hadka et al, 2015;Whateley et al, 2014;Lampert and Groves, 2010). These decision-centric approaches seek robust solutions that can minimize adverse effects of climatic stresses on given 1146 D. Kim et al: Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric impact assessment hydrological systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the decision-centric frameworks, the assessments based on the response functions of system performance have provided convenience in defining decision thresholds at which adaptation actions are required (e.g., Kim et al, 2018;Steinschneider et al, 2015a;Turner et al, 2014;Whateley et al, 2014;Brown et al, 2012;Prudhomme et al, 2010). They developed the relationships between system performances and climatic stressors (hereafter referred to as the response surfaces) via stress tests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The prior studies imply that over-reliance on the response surfaces of general performance metrics may misguide users to inappropriate and/or untimely adaptation policies. Importantly, the response surfaces have usually been developed with climatic shifts defined by long-term changes in statistical moments of weather observations (e.g., Poff et al, 2016;Steinschneider et al, 2015a;Whateley et al, 2014;Turner et al, 2014), even though they might insufficiently explain variation in the chosen performance indicators. found that the performance variation in a water supply system can be attributed significantly to the internal climate variability over a time horizon of policy planning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system

Kim

Chun

Choi

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Climate change is a global stressor that can undermine water management policies developed with the assumption of stationary climate. While the response-surfacebased assessments provided a new paradigm for formulating actionable adaptive solutions, the uncertainty associated with the stress tests poses challenges. To address the risks of unsatisfactory performances in a climate domain, this study proposed the incorporation of the logistic regression into a decision-centric framework. The proposed approach replaces the "response surfaces" of the performance metrics typically used for the decision-scaling framework with the "logistic surfaces" that describes the risk of system failures against predefined performance thresholds. As a case study, water supply and environmental reliabilities were assessed within the eco-engineering decision-scaling framework for a complex river basin in South Korea. Results showed that humandemand-only operations in the river basin could result in the water deficiency at a location requiring environmental flows. To reduce the environmental risks, the stakeholders could accept increasing risks of unsatisfactory water supply performance at the sub-basins with small water demands. This study suggests that the logistic surfaces could provide a computational efficiency to measure system robustness to climatic changes from multiple perspectives together with the risk information for decision-making processes.

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Section: Water Supply Performance At the Sub-basinsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Generating Climate-stress-induced Weather Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system

Kim

Chun

Choi

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

Quinn

Hadjimichael

Reed

2020

Preprint

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Planning under deep uncertainty, when probabilistic characterizations of the future are unknown, is a major challenge in water resources management. Many planning frameworks advocate for "scenario-neutral" analyses in which alternative policies are evaluated over plausible future scenarios with no assessment of their likelihoods. Instead, these frameworks use sensitivity analysis to discover which uncertain factors have the greatest influence on performance. This knowledge can be used to design monitoring programs and adaptive policies that respond to changes in the critical uncertainties. However, scenario-neutral analyses make implicit assumptions about the range and independence of the uncertain factors that may not be consistent with the coupled human-hydrologic processes influencing the system. These assumptions could influence which factors are found to be most important and which policies are most robust, belying their neutrality; assuming uniformity and independence could have decision-relevant implications. This study illustrates these implications using a multistakeholder planning problem within the Colorado River Basin, where hundreds of rights holders vie for the river's limited water under the law of prior appropriation. Variance-based sensitivity analyses are performed to assess users' vulnerabilities to changing hydrologic conditions using four experimental designs: (1) scenario-neutral samples of hydrologic factors, centered on recent historical conditions, (2) scenarios informed by climate projections, (3) scenarios informed by paleohydrologic reconstructions, and (4) scenario-neutral samples of hydrologic factors spanning all previous experimental designs. Differences in sensitivities and user robustness rankings across the experiments illustrate the challenges of inferring the most consequential drivers of vulnerabilities to design effective monitoring programs and robust management policies.Plain Language Summary How we should best manage our water resources depends on future water supply and demand, both of which are changing in uncertain ways as a consequence of climate change, population growth, and sectoral change. This makes it challenging to decide between alternative management plans that may be most favorable under different conditions. Given this uncertainty, many planning frameworks advocate for implementing "robust" management plans that perform reasonably well over a wide range of conditions. These plans can then be modified adaptively to cater to particular climate and socioeconomic conditions as our uncertainty about the future is reduced. Unfortunately, we find that the determination of which plan is most robust, and what conditions should trigger adaptation, is an additional challenge. In assessing the vulnerabilities of hundreds of water users in the Upper Colorado River Basin to different possible drought conditions, we find different users to be robust depending on which scenarios are considered. The sensitivities of these users' water shortages to different climate conditio...

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Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

Greene

Robertson

2017

Clim Dyn

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Assessing the relative effects of emissions, climate means, and variability on large water supply systems

Cited by 21 publications

References 49 publications

Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system

Incorporating the logistic regression into a decision-centric assessment of climate change impacts on a complex river system

Can exploratory modeling of water scarcity vulnerabilities and robustness be scenario neutral?

Interannual and low-frequency variability of Upper Indus Basin winter/spring precipitation in observations and CMIP5 models

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