Assessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region

Shearer, Freya M; Walker, James R.; Tellioglu, Nefel; McCaw, James M.; McVernon, Jodie; Black, Andrew J.; Geard, Nicholas

doi:10.1101/2020.04.09.20057257

Cited by 11 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…These individuals were advised to self-quarantine for 14 days from their date of arrival [10]. Further border measures, including enhanced testing and provision of additional advice, were placed on arrivals from other countries, based on a risk-assessment tool developed in early February [11].…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prior to 15 March, returning Australian residents and citizens (and their dependents) from mainland China were advised to self-quarantine. Note that further border measures were implemented during this period, including enhanced testing and provision of advice on arrivals from selected countries based on a risk assessment tool developed in early February [11]. On 15 March, Australian authorities imposed a self-quarantine requirement on all international arrivals, and from 27 March, moved to a mandatory quarantine policy for all international arrivals.…”

Section: Accounting For Imported Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dates of selected key border and social distancing measures implemented by Australian authorities are indicated by annotations above the plotted case counts. These measures were in addition to case targeted interventions (case isolation and contact quarantine) and further border measures, including enhanced testing and provision of advice, on arrivals from other selected countries, based on a riskassessment tool developed in early February [11]. Note that Australian citizens and residents (and their dependants) were exempt from travel restrictions, but upon returning to Australia were required to quarantine for 14 days from the date of arrival.…”

Section: Forecasting Ward and Icu Bed Occupancy From Observed And Promentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

Price

Shearer

Meehan

et al. 2020

Preprint

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As of 18 April 2020, there had been 6,533 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 67 had died from the disease. The daily count of new confirmed cases was declining. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors, such as the intensity and timing public health interventions, that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19 will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. Using data from the Australian national COVID-19 database, we describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April 2020. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below 1 (the threshold value for control) in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that hospital ward and intensive care unit occupancy will remain below capacity thresholds over the next two weeks.

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Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accounting For Imported Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Forecasting Ward and Icu Bed Occupancy From Observed And Promentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

Price

Shearer

Meehan

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Somewhat confusingly, R 0 is also used in the physics literature to denote the threshold itself -as in [5] where R 0 is derived in terms of moments of the contact network degree distribution. Nonetheless, efforts to estimate the relevant parameters for the coronavirus pandemic are currently underway and are best summarised (from our local perspective) by the technical reports of Shearer [6], Moss [7] and co-workers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Strong Control Measures for Epidemic Propagation With Networks—A COVID-19 Case Study

Small

Cavanagh²

2020

IEEE Access

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We show that precise knowledge of epidemic transmission parameters is not required to build an informative model of the spread of disease. We propose a detailed model of the topology of the contact network under various external control regimes and demonstrate that this is sufficient to capture the salient dynamical characteristics and to inform decisions. Contact between individuals in the community is characterised by a contact graph, the structure of that contact graph is selected to mimic community control measures. Our model of city-level transmission of an infectious agent (SEIR model) characterises spread via a (a) scale-free contact network (no control); (b) a random graph (elimination of mass gatherings); and (c) small world lattice (partial to full lockdown-"social" distancing). This model exhibits good qualitative agreement between simulation and data from the 2020 pandemic spread of a novel coronavirus. Estimates of the relevant rate parameters of the SEIR model are obtained and we demonstrate the robustness of our model predictions under uncertainty of those estimates. The social context and utility of this work is identified, contributing to a highly effective pandemic response in Western Australia. INDEX TERMS agent based model, complex network, infectious diseases, propagation on networks

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“…Further, it allows the identification of groups of travellers that most likely carry the virus, which can inform strategies for the optimal use of available prevention and control resources. In contrast to other studies that have looked at exportation risk from China [9][10][11] , our model quantifies the expected number of importations for a particular country and is global in scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk

Liebig

Najeebullah

Jurdak

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations. Here we develop a comprehensive framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation. As a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.

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Assessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region

Cited by 11 publications

References 12 publications

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

Modelling Strong Control Measures for Epidemic Propagation With Networks—A COVID-19 Case Study

Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk

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