Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C

Abstract

In this study, the strength of the regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2 • C with respect to pre-industrial times is assessed, distinguishing between 26 different regions. Also, the strength of these regional climate changes is compared to the strength of the respective changes associated with a markedly stronger global warming of 4.5 • C. The magnitude of the regional changes in climate is estimated by means of a normalized regional climate change index, which considers changes in the mean as well as changes in the interannual variability of both near-surface temperature and precipitation. The study is based on two sets of four ensemble simulations with the ECHAM5

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

“…Mitigation scenarios are particularly relevant for investigating global temperature targets such as 2°C, however there are very few available. None of the SRES scenarios were designed to simulate mitigation, and until recently investigation of mitigation scenarios was mainly based on efforts from individual modeling centers . The ENSEMBLES project also ran a mitigation scenario with a number of GCMs .…”

Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios

“…The modelling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations all imply that a 2 ∘ C e679 global warming above the pre-industrial level could be dangerous (Lenton et al, 2008;Schaeffer et al, 2012;Hansen et al, 2016). Thus, action is urgently needed to avoid foreclosing on the possibility of holding warming to well below 2 ∘ C (Peters et al, 2013;Rogelj et al, 2013Rogelj et al, , 2016Perrissin Fabert et al, 2014;Knutti et al, 2015) and to obtain a comprehensive picture of the consequences of a 2 ∘ C warmer climate for decision makers (Kaplan and New, 2006;Giannakopoulos et al, 2009;Joshi et al, 2011;Anderson, 2012;May, 2012;Lang and Sui, 2013;Vautard et al, 2014;Sui et al, 2015;Jiang et al, 2016).…”

Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming

“…Besides the timing of crossing the 2 °C target, regional climate changes associated with such a change are of broad scientific and socio‐economic interest, because global mean temperature change does not equal the same magnitude of change everywhere, as the geographical distribution of climate change is very different to the global mean change, and because it is local rather than global scale climate change that actually matters to human activities and the natural ecosystem. To understand the spatial pattern of a 2 °C globally warmed world, numerical experiments driven by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances have been used to project the related changes in regional temperature (Joshi et al , ) and precipitation (May, ); seasonal temperature extremes (Anderson, ); temperature, precipitation, and vegetation over the Arctic (Kaplan and New, ); temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean basin (Giannakopoulos et al , ); the Swiss Alpine glaciers (Salzmann et al , ); the European climate (Vautard et al , ); and the Indian summer monsoon (May, ) based on the previous generations of IS92a and/or SRES concentration/emissions scenarios. Also projected are regional temperature (Zhang, ; Zhang et al , ) and global sea‐level (Schaeffer et al , ) changes under the current generation of RCPs scenarios.…”