Assessing tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise at broad geographic scales with multi-metric indices

Raposa, Kenneth B.; Wasson, Kerstin; Smith, Erik M.; Crooks, Jeffrey A.; Delgado, Patricia; Fernald, Sarah; Ferner, Matthew C.; Helms, Alicia; Hice, Lyndie A.; Mora, Jordan W.; Puckett, Brandon; Sanger, Denise; Shull, Suzanne; Spurrier, Lindsay; Stevens, Rachel; Lerberg, Scott

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.10.015

Cited by 83 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…For the time period 1988–2007, the simulated average biomass for the whole study area at the Grand Bay NERR was 808 g/m 2 , consistent with the measurements at the same area in this study and the literature (Braswell, ). The simulated average accretion rate (Methods—Equation ) for the whole study area was 1.8 mm/year, similar to the average measured data which was 1.4 mm/year using the marker horizon method (Raposa et al., ). The simulated average flow velocity, necessary to calculate erosion rate, at the mudflat bed in Grand Bay is ~ 7 m/s in the present day, and it increases to 11 m/s by 2100 with a SLR rate of 4.1 mm/year, very similar to the predicted velocity of 6.1 m/s and 12.2 m/s for the current time and 2100 derived from simulations using the more complex hydrodynamic model ADvanced CIRCulation model (ADCIRC) applied to Grand Bay (Passeri et al., ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

“…The parameter k 3 denotes the effect of root production on sediment accretion via organic matter contribution to the wetland platform as the refractory portion of dead roots is buried. The parameters are calibrated in order for the estimated accretion rate to be close to the measured mean accretion rate at the Grand Bay NERR using the feldspar marker horizon technique on established SET arrays (Cahoon & Turner, ; Raposa et al., ) and maximize the similarity between the simulated wetland and the map available from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) for 2007. B a and B b denote above‐ground (see “Biomass” section) and below‐ground biomass, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We compared the vegetation biomass, accretion rate, and velocity at the mud bed simulated from our model to the measured data and other models’ simulations (Braswell, ; Passeri et al., ; Raposa et al., ). We also compared the simulated 2007 wetland distribution from our newly developed model to the NWI data in 2007 (the reference map) using five metrics which accounted for five main components in map comparison: (1) hits: the reference change (land change derived from the 2007 reference map and the initial 1988 map) simulated correctly as change, (2) correct rejections: the reference persistence (land remaining the same from the initial 1988 map to the 2007 reference map) simulated correctly as persistence, (3) wrong hits: reference change simulated incorrectly as change to the wrong category, (4) misses: reference change simulated incorrectly as persistence, and (5) false alarms: reference persistence simulated incorrectly as change (Pontius, Peethambaram, & Castella, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Biber

Bethel

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea‐level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology—nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision‐making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine‐dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10−4 m/year2 and 9.62 × 10−5 m/year2 for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP8.5 to preserve these marshes.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Biber

Bethel

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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“…In lower‐energy environments and at larger scales, traditional strategies like marsh replanting, hydrological restoration, or thin‐layer deposition are just a few approaches that may be more cost‐effective and appropriate (Raposa et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living shorelines enhanced the resilience of saltmarshes to Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Smith

Puckett

Gittman³

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Nature-based solutions, such as living shorelines, have the potential to restore critical ecosystems, enhance coastal sustainability, and increase resilience to natural disasters; however, their efficacy during storm events compared to traditional hardened shorelines is largely untested. This is a major impediment to their implementation and promotion to policy-makers and homeowners. To address this knowledge gap, we evaluated rock sill living shorelines as compared to natural marshes and hardened shorelines (i.e., bulkheads) in North Carolina, USA for changes in surface elevation, Spartina alterniflora stem density, and structural damage from 2015 to 2017, including before and after Hurricane Matthew (2016). Our results show that living shorelines exhibited better resistance to landward erosion during Hurricane Matthew than bulkheads and natural marshes. Additionally, living shorelines were more resilient than hardened shorelines, as they maintained landward elevation over the two-year study period without requiring any repair. Finally, rock sill living shorelines were able to enhance S. alterniflora stem densities over time when compared to natural marshes. Our results suggest that living shorelines have the potential to improve coastal resilience while supporting important coastal ecosystems.

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“…Salt marshes are highly productive and provide numerous ecosystem services, including fish nursery habitat, shoreline protection, and water quality improvement (Gedan et al 2009). Thus, coastal managers at local to national scales are interested in understanding factors that affect marsh resilience (Raposa et al 2016). Thus, coastal managers at local to national scales are interested in understanding factors that affect marsh resilience (Raposa et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pattern and scale: evaluating generalities in crab distributions and marsh dynamics from small plots to a national scale

Wasson

Raposa

Almeida

et al. 2019

Ecology

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The generality of ecological patterns depends inextricably on the scale at which they are examined. We investigated patterns of crab distribution and the relationship between crabs and vegetation in salt marshes at multiple scales. By using consistent monitoring protocols across 15 U.S. National Estuarine Research Reserves, we were able to synthesize patterns from the scale of quadrats to the entire marsh landscape to regional and national scales. Some generalities emerged across marshes from our overall models, and these are useful for informing broad coastal management policy. We found that crab burrow distribution within a marsh could be predicted by marsh elevation, distance to creek and soil compressibility. While these physical factors also affected marsh vegetation cover, we did not find a strong or consistent overall effect of crabs at a broad scale in our multivariate model, though regressions conducted separately for each site revealed that crab burrows were negatively correlated with vegetation cover at 4 out of 15 sites. This contrasts with recent smaller-scale studies and meta-analyses synthesizing such studies that detected strong negative effects of crabs on marshes, likely because we sampled across the entire marsh landscape, while targeted studies are typically limited to low-lying areas near creeks, where crab burrow densities are highest. Our results suggest that sea-level rise generally poses a bigger threat to marshes than crabs, but there will likely be interactions between these physical and biological factors. Beyond these generalities across marshes, we detected some regional differences in crab community composition, richness, and abundance. However, we found striking differences among sites within regions, and within sites, in terms of crab abundance and relationships to marsh integrity. Although generalities are broadly useful, our findings indicate that local managers cannot rely on data from other nearby systems, but rather need local information for developing salt marsh management strategies.

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Assessing tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise at broad geographic scales with multi-metric indices

Cited by 83 publications

References 41 publications

Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Living shorelines enhanced the resilience of saltmarshes to Hurricane Matthew (2016)

Pattern and scale: evaluating generalities in crab distributions and marsh dynamics from small plots to a national scale

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