Assessing uncertainty associated with the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas

Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Fernández, Tomás Vega; Cronin, Katherine; Röckmann, Christine; Pantazi, Maria; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Stamford, Tammy; Hostens, Kristian; Pecceu, Ellen; Degraer, S.; Buhl‐Mortensen, Lene; Carlström, Julia; Galparsoro, Ibon; Johnson, Kate R.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Vassilopoulou, V.; Jak, R.G.; Pace, Marie Louise; Hoof, L.J.W. van

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2014.08.001

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…In terms of policy conclusions, the results of this study emphasize the broad scope of additional management and funding options (see also [33][34][35]) since the provision of marine biodiversity is on the one hand costly, and on the other hand requires a broad range of management strategies and instruments (see [36]) in order to effectively conserve marine biodiversity. Both issues require more stringent governance frameworks.…”

Section: Discussion Summary and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Willingness-To-Pay for Improving Marine Biodiversity: A Case Study of Lastovo Archipelago Marine Park (Croatia)

Getzner

Jungmeier²,

Špika³

2016

Water

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Abstract:The sustainable financing of marine protected areas is still an important issue on the conservation agenda even in European countries with strong governance and regulatory frameworks. With the example of the Lastovo Archipelago Marine Park in Croatia, this paper discusses options for funding based on visitors' willingness-to-pay to conserve marine biodiversity. The site is attractive to general tourists coming by ferries and sailors with private boats alike, which is at the same time a challenge and an opportunity for designing an efficient and effective funding scheme. The authors investigate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) of these two groups of visitors for the conservation of characteristic habitats and species based on the visualization of three different scenarios. In the statistical analysis, the authors find a significant WTP that could contribute to the long-term management and financing of the site, taking into account the perceptions and attitudes of the different groups of tourists. All in all, this study provides several conclusions for levying entry fees depending on a segmentation of tourists with respect to their preferences, behavior, socio-economic characteristics, and alternative destinations.

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Section: Discussion Summary and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Willingness-To-Pay for Improving Marine Biodiversity: A Case Study of Lastovo Archipelago Marine Park (Croatia)

Getzner

Jungmeier²,

Špika³

2016

Water

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“…For instance, fuzzy sets and advice theory allow for characterization of uncertainty associated with expert knowledge (Ferdous et al, 2013). Also Walker-type and pedigree matrices were utilized to assess both the sources and respective relative levels of uncertainty related to an assessment process which integrates many sources of information and data qualities (Stelzenmüller et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: current approaches and some perspectives

Stelzenmüller¹,

Fock²,

Gimpel³

et al. 2014

ICES Journal of Marine Science

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Marine spatial planning (MSP) requires spatially explicit environmental risk assessment (ERA) frameworks with quantitative or probabilistic measures of risk, enabling an evaluation of spatial management scenarios. ERAs comprise the steps of risk identification, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. A review of ERAs in in the context of spatial management revealed a synonymous use of the concepts of risk, vulnerability and impact, a need to account for uncertainty and a lack of a clear link between risk analysis and risk evaluation. In a case study, we addressed some of the identified gaps and predicted the risk of changing the current state of benthic disturbance by bottom trawling due to future MSP measures in the German EEZ of the North Sea. We used a quantitative, dynamic, and spatially explicit approach where we combined a Bayesian belief network with GIS to showcase the steps of risk characterization, risk analysis, and risk evaluation. We distinguished 10 benthic communities and 6 international fishing fleets. The risk analysis produced spatially explicit estimates of benthic disturbance, which was computed as a ratio between relative local mortality by benthic trawling and the recovery potential after a trawl event. Results showed great differences in spatial patterns of benthic disturbance when accounting for different environmental impacts of the respective fleets. To illustrate a risk evaluation process, we simulated a spatial shift of the international effort of two beam trawl fleets, which are affected the most by future offshore wind development. The Bayesian belief network (BN) model was able to predict the proportion of the area where benthic disturbance likely increases. In conclusion, MSP processes should embed ERA frameworks which allow for the integration of multiple risk assessments and the quantification of related risks as well as uncertainties at a common spatial scale.

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“…The SQ methodology was proposed and used by Stelzenmüller et al [10] to rank locations of uncertainty in a set of models for monitoring and assessing marine spatial management plans. We combined level and nature to generate 6 different types of uncertainty (Fig 4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region

et al. 2017

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Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP.

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Assessing uncertainty associated with the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas

Cited by 23 publications

References 44 publications

Willingness-To-Pay for Improving Marine Biodiversity: A Case Study of Lastovo Archipelago Marine Park (Croatia)

Willingness-To-Pay for Improving Marine Biodiversity: A Case Study of Lastovo Archipelago Marine Park (Croatia)

Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: current approaches and some perspectives

Addressing uncertainty in modelling cumulative impacts within maritime spatial planning in the Adriatic and Ionian region

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