Assessment of a NEMO-based hydrodynamic modelling system for the Great Lakes

Dupont, Frédéric; Chittibabu, P.; Fortin, Vincent; Rao, Yerubandi R.; Lu, Youyu

doi:10.2166/wqrjc.2012.014

Cited by 40 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…These include a coupled (atmosphere-ice-ocean) Gulf of Saint Lawrence system (officially operational since June 2011; Smith et al, 2012), the Global Ice-Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS, runs in real time since March 2014; Smith et al, 2015), a Great Lakes coupled system (still in development; Dupont et al, 2012), a regional ice-only prediction system (runs in real time since July 2013; Lemieux et al, 2015a) and a regional Arctic-North Atlantic ice-ocean system based on the CREG12 (Canadian REGional) configuration with a nominal horizontal resolution of 1/12 • . The last is the focus of this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A high-resolution ocean and sea-ice modelling system for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans

et al. 2015

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Abstract. As part of the CONCEPTS (Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems) initiative, a high-resolution (1/12 • ) ice-ocean regional model is developed covering the North Atlantic and the Arctic oceans. The long-term objective is to provide Canada with short-term ice-ocean predictions and hazard warnings in ice-infested regions. To evaluate the modelling component (as opposed to the analysis -or data-assimilation -component, which is not covered in this contribution), a series of hindcasts for the period 2003-2009 is carried out, forced at the surface by the Canadian GDPS reforecasts (Smith et al., 2014). These hindcasts test how the model represents upper ocean characteristics and ice cover. Each hindcast implements a new aspect of the modelling or the ice-ocean coupling. Notably, the coupling to the multi-category ice model CICE is tested. The hindcast solutions are then assessed using a verification package under development, including in situ and satellite ice and ocean observations. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the model reproduces reasonably well the time mean, variance and skewness of sea surface height; (2) the model biases in temperature and salinity show that while the mean properties follow expectations, the Pacific Water signature in the Beaufort Sea is weaker than observed; (3) the modelled freshwater content of the Arctic agrees well with observational estimates; (4) the distribution and volume of the sea ice are shown to be improved in the latest hindcast due to modifications to the drag coefficients and to some degree to the ice thickness distribution available in CICE; (5) nonetheless, the model still overestimates the ice drift and ice thickness in the Beaufort Gyre.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A high-resolution ocean and sea-ice modelling system for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans

et al. 2015

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“…Dupont et al . [] configured and assessed a NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean)‐based hydrodynamic modeling system for the Great Lakes, with a focus on Lake Ontario. However, there have been no studies showing comprehensive examinations on modeling performance in simulating the thermal structure of Lake Superior and none of the studies examined the relationship between the representation of the lake‐atmosphere system in a model and the model performance in simulating the thermal structure from the perspective of modeling dynamics per se, hence the following questions remains unaddressed: (1) How do lake‐atmosphere interactions impact the variability of the lake thermal structure?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An investigation of the thermal response to meteorological forcing in a hydrodynamic model of Lake Superior

Xue

Schwab

2015

J. Geophys. Res. Oceans

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Lake Superior, the largest lake in the world by surface area and third largest by volume, features strong spatiotemporal thermal variability due to its immense size and complex bathymetry. The objectives of this study are to document our recent modeling experiences on the simulation of the lake thermal structure and to explore underlying dynamic explanations of the observed modeling success. In this study, we use a three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model (FVCOM—Finite Volume Community Ocean Model) and an assimilative weather forecasting model (WRF—Weather Research and Forecasting Model) to study the annual heating and cooling cycle of Lake Superior. Model experiments are carried out with meteorological forcing based on interpolation of surface weather observations, on WRF and on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis data, respectively. Model performance is assessed through comparison with satellite products and in situ measurements. Accurate simulations of the lake thermal structure are achieved through (1) adapting the COARE algorithm in the hydrodynamic model to derive instantaneous estimates of latent/sensible heat fluxes and upward longwave radiation based on prognostic surface water temperature simulated within the model as opposed to precomputing them with an assumed surface water temperature; (2) estimating incoming solar radiation and downward longwave radiation based on meteorological measurements as opposed to meteorological model‐based estimates; (3) using the weather forecasting model to provide high‐resolution dynamically constrained wind fields as opposed to wind fields interpolated from station observations. Analysis reveals that the key to the modeling success is to resolve the lake‐atmosphere interactions and apply appropriate representations of different meteorological forcing fields, based on the nature of their spatiotemporal variability. The close agreement between model simulation and observations also suggests that the 3‐D hydrodynamic model can provide reliable spatiotemporal estimates of heat budgets over Lake Superior and similar systems. Although there have been previous studies which analyzed the impact of the spatiotemporal variability of overwater wind fields on lake circulation, we believe this is the first detailed analysis of the importance of spatiotemporal variability of heat flux components on hydrodynamic simulation of 3‐D thermal structure in a lake.

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“…Dornes et al (2008) employed a stepwise calibration strategy with MESH to promote the transferability of vegetation parameters based on landscape similarity as opposed to basin attributes. Dupont, Chittibabu, Fortin, Rao, and Lu (2012) linked MESH with a three-dimensional (3D) global ocean model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), to simulate a number of hydrodynamic properties of the Great Lakes including lake level variation, ice concentration, and lake surface temperature. Deacu, Fortin, Klyszejko, Spence, and Blanken (2012) conducted a series of experiments with MESH to improve Net Basin Supply (NBS) predictions for the Great Lakes by modifying estimations of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff.…”

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Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

et al. 2014

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This paper reports on recent progress towards improved predictions of a land surface-hydrological modelling system, Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), via its calibration over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin. Accordingly, a "global" calibration strategy is utilized in which parameters for all land class types are calibrated simultaneously to a number of sub-basins and then validated in time and space. Model performance was evaluated based on four performance metrics, including the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient and simulated compared with observed hydrographs. Results from two calibration approaches indicate that in the model validation mode, the global strategy generates better results than an alternative calibration strategy, referred to as the "individual" strategy, in which parameters are calibrated individually to a single sub-basin with a dominant land type and then validated in a different sub-basin with the same dominant land type. The global calibration strategy was relatively successful despite the large number of calibration parameters (51) and relatively small number of model evaluations (1000) used in the automatic calibration procedure. The NS values for spatial validation range from 0.10 to 0.72 with a median of 0.41 for the 15 sub-basins considered. Results also confirm that a careful model calibration and validation is needed before any application of the model. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les progrès récents vers des prévisions améliorées d'un système de modélisation hydrologique et de la surface du sol, le MESH (Modélisation environnementale-surface et hydrologie) par le biais de son étalonnage dans le bassin des Grands Lacs laurentiens. À cette fin, nous utilisons une stratégie d'étalonnage « d'ensemble » dans laquelle les paramètres pour tous les types de catégories de sol sont étalonnés simultanément pour un certain nombre de sous-bassins et validés dans le temps et dans l'espace. Nous avons évalué la performance du modèle d'après quatre mesures de performance, y compris le coefficient de Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), et comparé les simulations aux hydrogrammes observés. Les résultats de deux méthodes d'étalonnage indiquent que dans le mode de validation du modèle, la stratégie d'ensemble produit de meilleurs résultats qu'une autre stratégie d'étalonnage, désignée sous le nom de « stratégie individuelle », dans laquelle les paramètres sont étalonnés individuellement pour un sous-bassin unique avec une catégorie de sol dominante puis validés dans un sous-bassin différent avec la même catégorie de sol dominante. La stratégie d'étalonnage d'ensemble s'est avérée assez efficace malgré le grand nombre de paramètres d'étalonnage (51) et le petit nombre d'évaluations du modèle (1000) utilisées dans la procédure d'étalonnage automatique. Les valeurs NS pour la validation spatiale vont de 0,10 à 0,72 avec une médiane de 0,41 pour les 15 sous-bassins considérés. Les résultats confirment aussi qu'un étalonnage et une validation minutieux du modèle sont nécessa...

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Assessment of a NEMO-based hydrodynamic modelling system for the Great Lakes

Cited by 40 publications

References 49 publications

A high-resolution ocean and sea-ice modelling system for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans

A high-resolution ocean and sea-ice modelling system for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans

An investigation of the thermal response to meteorological forcing in a hydrodynamic model of Lake Superior

Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

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