Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

Abstract

A n assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen to evaluate impacts for the periods 2010-2039, 2030-2059 and 2070-2099, identified as 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively. All climate projections reflect a warming future climate, but the individual GCMs vary with respect to precipitation changes -some models reflect wetter conditions and some drier. The assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state at selected representative locations: irrigated apples at Sunnyside; irrigated potatoes at Othello; dryland wheat at Pullman (high precipitation), Saint John (intermediate precipitation), and Lind and Odessa (low precipitation). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences, including simulations with and without concurrent elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration as given by the IPCC A1B CO 2 emission projection. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops) and nutrient supply and possible negative impacts from pests and diseases were not accounted for. Simulation results project that the impact of climate change on selected but economically significant crops in eastern Washington will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, the projected CO 2 elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation of climate change effects, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. Yields of winter wheat, without CO 2 effect, are projected to increase 2% to 8% for the 2020 scenario, tending to decline with further warming in high precipitation locations, but continue increasing to reach a 12% gain by the 2080s in low precipitation locations. With CO 2 elevation, winter wheat yields are projected to increase by 15% for the 2020 scenario, with larger increases later in the century. Spring wheat yields are projected not to change for the 2020 scenario, and decline 10% to 15% (2040), and 20% to 26% (2080) without CO 2 effect. However, earlier planting combined with CO 2 elevation is projected to increase yields by 16% for the 2020 scenario. 191Yields of irrigated potatoes are projected to decline 9%, 15%, and 22% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but these losses are significantly smaller (2 to 3%) with CO 2 elevation. Varieties with a longer duration of green leaf area, combined with elevated CO 2 , could potentially result in yield gains of 15%. However, reductions of tuber quality are a concern under warmer conditions. Apple yields are projected to decline 1%, 3%, and 4% for the 2020, 2040, and 2080 scenarios, respectively, but with projected yields increasing 6% (2020), 9% (2040), and...

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

“…In the Northwest, these false springs are projected to decline in frequency by the end of this century (Allstadt et al 2015, Peterson and. However, the spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs may make local predictions of change difficult (Allstadt et al 2015), and minimum temperatures during early spring will still provide conditions for damaging frost events despite the warming trend (Stöckle et al 2010). Earlier and warmer springs will also pose challenges for pest management.…”

“…Earlier and warmer springs will also pose challenges for pest management. For example, in the Northwest under some climate change scenarios, powdery mildew is projected to increase and codling moths may appear 4-14 days earlier and increase the fraction of third generation hatch (Stöckle et al 2010).…”

Projected Dryland Cropping System Shifts in the Pacific Northwest in Response to Climate Change

“…Compared to the historical baseline, the 50% probability total grain yield by the 2070s is projected to increase 23-37% for RCP 4.5 and 35-71% for RCP 8.5 depending on the AEC, with CC showing the greatest absolute increase and CF showing greatest relative increase compare to baseline yields. Based on limited studies in the IPNW, yields of wheatbased systems are projected to benefit from climate change for most of this century, with the degree of benefit depending on RCP (Thomson et al, 2002;Rosenzweig and Tubiello, 2007;Stöckle et al, 2010). Although, the yield response to future temperature changes can be fairly uncertain (Asseng et al, 2015), the moderate current temperatures in the region and earlier crop maturity under future conditions will mitigate deleterious effects of temperature on crop yields.…”

“…These projections remained unchanged when the variation of downloaded weather from 12 GCMs used in this study was considered or when yields with a probability of exceedance of 70% were used to classify AECs. One weakness of the study is the use of a single crop model for yield projections, although the CropSyst model has been used extensively in wheat studies in the IPNW (Pannkuk et al, 1998;Peralta and Stöckle, 2002;Stöckle et al, 2010; and around the world, Pala et al, 1996;Sommer et al, 2013;Donatelli et al, 2015;Holzkämper et al, 2015;O'Leary et al, 2015). Previous studies conducted with other models have also shown positive impacts of climate change in the region (Thomson et al, 2002;Rosenzweig and Tubiello, 2007).…”

Critical Research Needs for Successful Food Systems Adaptation to Climate Change

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