Projected Dryland Cropping System Shifts in the Pacific Northwest in Response to Climate Change

Karimi, Tina; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Higgins, Stewart S.; Nelson, Roger; Huggins, David R.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2017.00020

Cited by 35 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Classification of USDA cropland data layers allows the identification and area estimates of four major iPNW cereal cropping zones: annual crop, annual crop fallow transition, grain fallow and irrigated ( Figure 5). The area of these zones are projected to shift with regional climate change (Karimi et al, 2017).…”

Section: Integrated Win-win Systems By Cropping Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This zone occupies the greatest regional area, which is projected to reduce in size with climate change scenarios (Karimi et al, 2017). Tilled summer fallow is practiced in this zone for storing soil water to produce winter wheat every other year despite its erosive impacts (Lindstrom et al, 1974).…”

Section: Crop-fallow Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This zone is projected to increase with climate change scenarios (Karimi et al, 2017). Wheat-fallow in this region proved to be vulnerable to very high soil erosion rates, so continuous annual cropping of winter wheat, spring cereals and spring legumes was adopted, particularly with the advent of commercial fertilizers (Kaiser et al, 1954).…”

Section: Annual Crop Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Pan

Schillinger

Young

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Climate-friendly best management practices for mitigating and adapting to climate change (cfBMPs) include changes in crop rotation, soil management and resource use. Determined largely by precipitation gradients, specific agroecological systems in the inland Pacific Northwestern U.S. (iPNW) feature different practices across the region. Historically, these farming systems have been economically productive, but at the cost of high soil erosion rates and organic matter depletion, making them win-lose situations. Agronomic, sociological, political and economic drivers all influence cropping system innovations. Integrated, holistic conservation systems also need to be identified to address climate change by integrating cfBMPs that provide win-win benefits for farmer and environment. We conclude that systems featuring short-term improvements in farm economics, market diversification, resource efficiency and soil health will be most readily adopted by farmers, thereby simultaneously addressing longer term challenges including climate change. Specific "win-win scenarios" are designed for different iPNW production zones delineated by water availability. The cfBMPs include reduced tillage and residue management, organic carbon (C) recycling, precision nitrogen (N) management and crop rotation diversification and intensification. Current plant breeding technologies have provided new cultivars of canola and pea that can diversify system agronomics Pan et al.Win-Win Scenarios for Farm and Climate and markets. These agronomic improvements require associated shifts in prescriptive, precision N and weed management. The integrated cfBMP systems we describe have the potential for reducing system-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by increasing soil C storage, N use efficiency (NUE) and by production of biofuels. Novel systems, even if they are economically competitive, can come with increased financial risk to producers, necessitating government support (e.g., subsidized crop insurance) to promote adoption. Other conservation-and climate change-targeted farm policies can also improve adoption. Ultimately, farmers must meet their economic and legacy goals to assure longer-term adoption of mature cfBMP for iPNW production systems.

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Section: Integrated Win-win Systems By Cropping Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Crop-fallow Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Annual Crop Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Pan

Schillinger

Young

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Existing literature provides insights into crop yield and water availability vulnerabilities in multiple regional crop production systems. Increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels are expected to contribute to CO 2 fertilization and greater water use efficiency for dryland cereals, leading to stable or increased Northwest dryland wheat yields until mid-century Hatfield et al, 2011;Karimi et al, 2017;Stöckle et al, 2017). By later in the century, projected further annual average warming of up to 3.3-4.4 • C (6-8 • F) in a high emission scenario may overwhelm the positive yield impacts of CO 2 fertilization by accelerating wheat senescence, reducing grain-filling, and grain shriveling (Ferris et al, 1998;Ortiz et al, 2008;Stöckle et al, 2010;Cammarano et al, 2016).…”

Section: Cropping Systems In a Changing Climate Climate Impacts And Vmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Yorgey

Hall

Allen

et al. 2017

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In order for agricultural systems to successfully mitigate and adapt to climate change there is a need to coordinate and prioritize next steps for research and extension. This includes focusing on "win-win" management practices that simultaneously provide short-term benefits to farmers and improve the sustainability and resiliency of agricultural systems with respect to climate change. In the Northwest U.S., a collaborative process has been used to engage individuals spanning the research-practice continuum. This collaborative approach was utilized at a 2016 workshop titled "Agriculture in a Changing Climate," that included a broad range of participants including university faculty and students, crop and livestock producers, and individuals representing state, tribal and federal government agencies, industry, nonprofit organizations, and conservation districts. The Northwest U.S. encompasses a range of agro-ecological systems and diverse geographic and climatic contexts. Regional research and science communication efforts for climate change and agriculture have a strong history of engaging diverse stakeholders. These features of the Northwest U.S. provide a foundation for the collaborative research and extension prioritization presented here. We focus on identifying research and extension actions that can be taken over the next 5 years in four areas identified as important areas by conference organizers and participants: (1) cropping systems, (2) livestock systems, (3) decision support systems to support consideration of climate change in agricultural management decisions; and (4) partnerships among researchers and stakeholders. We couple insights from the workshop and a review of current literature to articulate current scientific understanding, and priorities recommended by workshop participants that target existing knowledge Yorgey et al.Priorities for U.S. Northwest Agriculture in a Changing Climate gaps, challenges, and opportunities. Priorities defined at the Agriculture in a Changing Climate workshop highlight the need for ongoing investment in interdisciplinary research integrating social, economic, and biophysical sciences, strategic collaborations, and knowledge sharing to develop actionable science that can support informed decision-making in the agriculture sector as the climate changes.

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“…The study sites LIND and CAF are located in the agroecological classes (AECs) of stable grain-fallow and stable annual crop, respectively, which are both facing declines in area (8-13%) under the future climate change scenarios (Karimi et al, 2017;Kaur et al, 2017). Based on model projections, other dynamic AECs (e.g., dynamic annual crop-fallow or dynamic grain-fallow) may increase (~60%) and result in more fallow management practice under future climate scenarios, although the counteracting effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration was not accounted for in their study (Kaur et al, 2017).…”

Section: Climatic Condition Effects and Climate Change Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

et al. 2017

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Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long‐term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site‐years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain‐fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high‐rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain‐fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no‐till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.

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Projected Dryland Cropping System Shifts in the Pacific Northwest in Response to Climate Change

Cited by 35 publications

References 36 publications

Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Integrating Historic Agronomic and Policy Lessons with New Technologies to Drive Farmer Decisions for Farm and Climate: The Case of Inland Pacific Northwestern U.S.

Northwest U.S. Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Collaboratively Defined Research and Extension Priorities

Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

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