As atmospheric CO 2 increases, ecosystem carbon sequestration will largely depend on how global changes in climate will alter the balance between net primary production and decomposition. The response of primary production to climatic change has been examined using well-validated mechanistic models, but the same is not true for decomposition, a primary source of atmospheric CO 2 . We used the Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset and model-selection techniques to choose and parameterize a model that describes global patterns of litter decomposition. Mass loss was best represented by a three-pool negative exponential model, with a rapidly decomposing labile pool, an intermediate pool representing cellulose, and a recalcitrant pool. The initial litter lignin/nitrogen ratio defined the size of labile and intermediate pools. Lignin content determined the size of the recalcitrant pool. The decomposition rate of all pools was modified by climate, but the intermediate pool's decomposition rate was also controlled by relative amounts of litter cellulose and lignin (indicative of ligninencrusted cellulose). The effect of climate on decomposition was best represented by a composite variable that multiplied a water-stress function by the Lloyd and Taylor variable Q 10 temperature function. Although our model explained nearly 70% of the variation in LIDET data, we observed systematic deviations from model predictions. Below-and aboveground material decomposed at notably different rates, depending on the decomposition stage. Decomposition in certain ecosystem-specific environmental conditions was not well represented by our model; this included roots in very wet and cold soils, and aboveground litter in N-rich and arid sites. Despite these limitations, our model may still be extremely useful for global modeling efforts, because it accurately (R 2 5 0.6804) described general patterns of long-term global decomposition for a wide array of litter types, using relatively minimal climatic and litter quality data.

Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.

Landscape connectivity is crucial for many ecological processes, including dispersal, gene flow, demographic rescue, and movement in response to climate change. As a result, governmental and non-governmental organizations are focusing efforts to map and conserve areas that facilitate movement to maintain population connectivity and promote climate adaptation. In contrast, little focus has been placed on identifying barriers—landscape features which impede movement between ecologically important areas—where restoration could most improve connectivity. Yet knowing where barriers most strongly reduce connectivity can complement traditional analyses aimed at mapping best movement routes. We introduce a novel method to detect important barriers and provide example applications. Our method uses GIS neighborhood analyses in conjunction with effective distance analyses to detect barriers that, if removed, would significantly improve connectivity. Applicable in least-cost, circuit-theoretic, and simulation modeling frameworks, the method detects both complete (impermeable) barriers and those that impede but do not completely block movement. Barrier mapping complements corridor mapping by broadening the range of connectivity conservation alternatives available to practitioners. The method can help practitioners move beyond maintaining currently important areas to restoring and enhancing connectivity through active barrier removal. It can inform decisions on trade-offs between restoration and protection; for example, purchasing an intact corridor may be substantially more costly than restoring a barrier that blocks an alternative corridor. And it extends the concept of centrality to barriers, highlighting areas that most diminish connectivity across broad networks. Identifying which modeled barriers have the greatest impact can also help prioritize error checking of land cover data and collection of field data to improve connectivity maps. Barrier detection provides a different way to view the landscape, broadening thinking about connectivity and fragmentation while increasing conservation options.