Assessment of Climate Favorability for the Grain Cultivation Based on
			the Frequency of Severe Droughts

Pavlova, V. N.; Bogdanovich, A. Yu.; Семенов, С. М.

doi:10.3103/s1068373920120079

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Continued warming will cause statistically significant changes in extreme events globally and for large regions (e.g., Masson-Delmotte et al 2021). Many studies report observed and future increases in temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, and drought extremes and its regional distribution around the world (Spinoni et al 2014;Donat et al 2016;Knutson and Zeng, 2018;Dunn et al 2020;Wu et al 2021;Seneviratne et al 2021;Rabiei et al 2022). According to the World Meteorological Organization's report (WMO, 2021), the number of disasters increased fivefold in the 50-year period from 1970 to 2019, because of climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Romanovskaya

2024

GES

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Increased number of extreme weather events is one of the most serious hazards of climate change over the territory of Russia. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of the number of extreme weather events that caused social and economic damage in the country and its regions. This paper analyzes changes in the total number of events with damage (meteorological for the period 1991-2019 and agrometeorological – for 2004-2019), disaggregated by their types and by regions. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect statistical significance (0.05 level of significance, normal distribution). The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990-2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively, while the proportion of events with damage in relation to the total number of extreme events decreased over this period. We found statistically significant trends only for a few types of extreme events: hot and cold temperature, strong wind, heavy rain and droughts (increase by 0.9, 9.4, 11.4, 25.9 and 13.3 events/10 years, respectively). Number of heavy rain precipitation events is the only unidirectional stable growth trend. Unusual increasing trend in cold extreme events with damage in Russia can be attributed to the greater damage to the economy and population from cold extremes than hot ones. The regional distribution of trends across the territory of the Russian Federation is heterogeneous. However, significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are statistically positive and observed mostly in some southern and central regions of European part and the Western Siberia. The development of adaptation plans to the negative effects of climate change is a first priority for these regions. A system for monitoring economic and non-economic damage from extreme events must be developed in Russia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Romanovskaya

2024

GES

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“…и является одним из опасных природных явлений, которое в экстремальном проявлении приводит к значительному снижению урожайности и негативным социальным последствиям [1,2]. О ее масштабных последствиях сообщается крайне мало, несмотря на то что, они охватывают большие территории, отражаются на различных системах и затрагивают многие отрасли и сферы, среди которых наиболее уязвимым является сельскохозяйственное производство [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Comparative Assessment of Anomally Dry Weather Conditions in the Ulyanovsk Region in the Xxi Century on the Example of 2010 and 2021

Nemtsev,

Sharipova

2022

Izvestiya of SSC RAS. Agricultural Sciences

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The article presents comparative characteristics of agrometeorological monitoring of drought in 2021 with an intensely dry year in 2010 in order to optimize measures to reduce the negative impact and improve knowledge about climate mechanisms that control the periods of their onset and termination. The results of observations of the agrometeorological post Timiryazevsky from 2000 to 2021, on the territory of the Ulyanovsk region, revealed that the average annual air temperature in the twenty-first century increased by 1.4 ° C and, as a result of the increase in temperature, the number of dry years increased. For twenty-two years of the current century, for fourteen years, differential droughts of varying intensity were observed. However, the persistent droughts of 2010 and 2021 proved to be the most devastating, depending on the duration and severity of the temperature impact, and caused significant damage to both early and late crops. Despite local heavy rainfall in April-August 2021, an abnormally high temperature regime was observed, which characterized a stable drought ahead of 2010. The high air temperatures of the growing season in 2021 (23.6°С) exceeded the temperature anomaly in 2010 (15.8°С) by 7.8°С, precipitation in 2021 for the same period (-36.3 mm) fell by 102 .2 mm more than in 2010 (-138.5 mm). Since precipitation fell locally and was of a stormy nature, they could not make up for the excess heat and the yield turned out to be lower than in 2010 by 0.04 t/ha. This comparative assessment of the most anomalously drought year 2010 in the history of meteorological observations in the region and their analysis call for more attention to preventive measures: to move from reactive approaches to proactive actions that allow to eliminate the root causes of drought and socio-environmental vulnerability, as well as avoiding and minimizing risks that require much less cost than response and response.

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“…Группа исследователей во главе с В.Н. Павловой разработала методику оценки уязвимости территорий к потере урожая и обосновала критерии устойчивости систем землепользования[7]. Методика основана на расчетах имеющихся показателей влагообеспеченности и химического состава почв.…”

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Mechanisms of adaptation of crop production in the regions of the Volga Federal District to the consequences of global climate change

Neufeld¹,

Kadomtseva²

2022

asj

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The purpose of the study is to substantiate promising directions for adapting the crop sub-sector of the regions of the Volga Federal District (VFD) to the consequences of global climate change and mechanisms for its provision. The authors considered the natural and climatic features of the territory of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation, studied the structure of crop producers. The indicators of crop yields are analyzed. A list of weather risks that are most often manifested in the regions of the Volga Federal District has been determined. Data are presented on the yield losses of spring wheat in dry years in the context of the federal districts of the Russian Federation from 1950 to 2020. An idea is obtained about the change in land use parameters in the medium and long term. The results obtained served as a rationale for such adaptive mechanisms of state support for the agro-industrial complex, such as insurance of agricultural risks, subsidizing reclamation work for all categories of small businesses, and allocating additional budgetary funds for the purchase of mineral (nitrogen and phosphorus) fertilizers. It is proposed to correct the list of subjects of the Russian Federation, the territories of which are classified as unfavorable for agricultural production, and include the Saratov and Orenburg regions in it. In these regions, a significant part of the territory is occupied by a semi-desert zone, and the sharp continental climate has become more pronounced. It is substantiated that the totality of the proposed measures will contribute to the accelerated adaptation of regional agrosystems to the consequences of global climate change.

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Assessment of Climate Favorability for the Grain Cultivation Based on the Frequency of Severe Droughts

Cited by 6 publications

References 2 publications

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Comparative Assessment of Anomally Dry Weather Conditions in the Ulyanovsk Region in the Xxi Century on the Example of 2010 and 2021

Mechanisms of adaptation of crop production in the regions of the Volga Federal District to the consequences of global climate change

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