Assessment of commuters’ daily exposure to flash flooding over the roads of the Gard region, France

Debionne, S.; Ruin, Isabelle; Shabou, Saif; Lutoff, Céline; Creutin, Jean‐Dominique

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.064

Cited by 25 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…An analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA test) showed that the effects of the four selected variables are statistically significant (Table 6). The most exposed individuals are mainly young working males whose trips are generally more motorized and commute longer distances daily (Debionne et al, 2016). These results confirm the benefit of integrating mobility behaviors into social vulnerability assessment.…”

Section: Exposure Analysissupporting

confidence: 65%

“…Based on the work of Versini et al (2010), a total of 1970 potential road cuts, which would be called "low-water crossing" in the USA, have been identified based on road-river intersections that are sensitive to flooding (see the detailed description in Sect. 3.2; Debionne et al, 2016). Even though the points exposed to flooding may be of three distinct types: river crossings, low accumulation points and river-adjacent points.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

Shabou

Ruin

Lutoff

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Recent flash flood impact studies highlight that road networks are often disrupted due to adverse weather and flash flood events. Road users are thus particularly exposed to road flooding during their daily mobility. Previous exposure studies, however, do not take into consideration population mobility. Recent advances in transportation research provide an appropriate framework for simulating individual travelactivity patterns using an activity-based approach. These activity-based mobility models enable the prediction of the sequence of activities performed by individuals and locating them with a high spatial-temporal resolution. This paper describes the development of the MobRISK microsimulation system: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to extreme hydrometeorological events. MobRISK aims at providing an accurate spatiotemporal exposure assessment by integrating travel-activity behaviors and mobility adaptation with respect to weather disruptions. The model is applied in a flash-flood-prone area in southern France to assess motorists' exposure to the September 2002 flash flood event. The results show that risk of flooding mainly occurs in principal road links with considerable traffic load. However, a lag time between the timing of the road submersion and persons crossing these roads contributes to reducing the potential vehicle-related fatal accidents. It is also found that sociodemographic variables have a significant effect on individual exposure. Thus, the proposed model demonstrates the benefits of considering spatiotemporal dynamics of population exposure to flash floods and presents an important improvement in exposure assessment methods. Such improved characterization of road user exposures can present valuable information for flood risk management services.

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Section: Exposure Analysissupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

Shabou

Ruin

Lutoff

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

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“…The conjunction of daily mobility related to professional activity of people with the occurrence of unusual hydrometeorological circumstances increases the vehicle-related spatiotemporal exposure. (64,65) during a flash flood event in the specific county. Commuting plays an important role in the overall vulnerability since work-related travels during a normal daily routine are more likely to be continued under adverse weather conditions in contrast to leisure trips that can be more easily rescheduled.…”

Section: Indicators Of Flash Flood and Circumstance-specific Human Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

et al. 2017

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This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance-specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle-related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time- and space-dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short-fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact-based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine-learning approaches in the future.

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“…This approach enables mobility to be represented as a succession of places or positions and journeys to be defined precisely in time and space. It therefore seems very suitable for analysing people's mobility during a disaster (André-Poyaud et al, 2009) and has been tested for other types of sudden event such as flash floods (Debionne et al, 2016).…”

Section: Exposure In the Streetmentioning

confidence: 99%

The street as an area of human exposure in an earthquake aftermath: the case of Lorca, Spain, 2011

Rojo

Beck

Lutoff

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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International audienceThe earthquake which struck the city of Lorca, Spain, on 11 May 2011 killed 9 people, injured over 300 and caused considerable damage, including one collapsed building. Streets near buildings were the main danger areas for people. This article proposes an dynamic ad hoc spatio-temporal method for studying individual evacuation after an earthquake. Its application to the Lorca case shows the spatial and temporal variability of individual exposure levels in the street during the hours following the shock. As yet little studied, human exposure deserves more attention, particularly in zones of moderate seismicity like the Euro-Mediterranean area. The results of this study could be helpful for enhancing the evacuation planning after an earthquake, stressing the specific dangers in the street

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Assessment of commuters’ daily exposure to flash flooding over the roads of the Gard region, France

Cited by 25 publications

References 28 publications

MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

MobRISK: a model for assessing the exposure of road users to flash flood events

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

The street as an area of human exposure in an earthquake aftermath: the case of Lorca, Spain, 2011

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