Assessment of Current and Future Climate Change Impact on Soil Loss Rate of Agewmariam Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

Girmay, Gebrehana; Moges, Awdenegest; Muluneh, Alemayehu

doi:10.1177/1178622121995847

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(74 reference statements)

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“…Phinzi et al [75] evaluated the use of the Durigon algorithm [76] in deriving C factor values based on NDVI for tropical areas, while Watene [47] recommended the use of LULC maps to assign C parameters in Kenya. Similar to other regional studies in other parts of the world focusing on future rainfall erosivity [3,24,50,77], the nationwide 2016 LULC map was used to obtain C coefficients to compute the present soil erosion status, as well as for the 2030s and 2080s periods. Table 3 shows C factor values used in this research, as sourced from past literature within the East Africa region.…”

Section: Slope Length and Slope Steepness (Ls) Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014 report [20] and recent studies projected a high 'likelihood of enhanced rainfall' in EA due to increases in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) [12,21,22]. Since almost 75% of soil erosion variation is attributed to rainfall erosivity and the terrain's slope gradient [23], the projected precipitation over EA heightens the potential level of soil loss in this tropical region [17,24]. It is thus increasingly necessary to quantify climate-driven soil erosion rates in order to formulate appropriate adaptation and conservation measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

Watene

Nie

et al. 2021

Applied Sciences

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Ongoing climate change poses a major threat to the soil resources of many African countries that mainly rely on an agricultural economy. While arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) take up most of Kenya’s land mass, approximately 64% of its total croplands lie within mountainous areas with high rainfall, hence, areas highly vulnerable to water erosion. Flooding of the Great Lakes and increasing desertification of the ASALs are illustrative cases of the implications of recent precipitation dynamics in Kenya. This study applied the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate future soil erosion rates at the national level based on four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed the current soil loss rate to be at 4.76 t ha−1 yr−1 and projected an increase in average rainfall erosivity under the two scenarios, except for RCP-2.6 (2030s) and (2080s) for the MIROC-5 model. Future projections revealed an incremental change in rainfall erosivity from the baseline climate by a cumulative average of 39.9% and 61.1% for all scenarios by the 2030s and 2080s, respectively, while soil loss is likely to increase concomitantly by 29% and 60%, respectively. The CCCMA_CANESM2 model under the RCP 8.5 (2080s) scenario projected the highest erosion rate of 15 t ha−1 yr−1 over Kenya, which is a maximum increase of above 200%, with the Rift Valley region recording an increase of up to 100% from 7.05 to 14.66 t ha−1 yr−1. As a first countrywide future soil erosion study, this assessment provides a useful reference for preventing water erosion and improving ecosystem service security.

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Section: Slope Length and Slope Steepness (Ls) Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

Watene

Nie

et al. 2021

Applied Sciences

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“…The IPCC regional review on climate change identified three vulnerable sectors in Ethiopia: food security, water resources, and health [19]. Natural hazards have claimed millions of lives and destroyed crops [20] as Ethiopia was highly affected by increased soil erosion [21], reduction in available water [22], and severe droughts [23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Orke

2022

Water

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This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological variables and drought characteristics in the Ethiopian Bilate watershed. Climate projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa for the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) periods. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess changes in watershed hydrology with the CORDEX-Africa data. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were calculated to identify the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts, respectively. Due to a significant rise in temperature, evapotranspiration will increase by up to 16.8% by the end of the 21st century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual average rainfall is estimated to decrease by 38.3% in the far future period, inducing a reduction of streamflow of up to 37.5%. Projections in reduced diurnal temperature range might benefit crop growth but suggest elevated heat stress. Probabilities of drought occurrence are expected to be doubled in the far future period, with increased intensities for all three types of droughts. These projected impacts will exacerbate water scarcity and threaten food securities in the study area. The study findings provide forward-looking quantitative information for water management authorities and decision-makers to develop adaptive measures to cope with the changing climate.

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“…Solomon et al (2021) reported that climate change will decline by 25.4%, 21.8% and 25.2% of the production of teff, maize and sorghum, respectively, by 2050 as compared to the base period in Ethiopia. Climate change also cause high soil loss and cause gully formation and change land use type (Girmay et al, 2021). The two most significant agro‐climatic factors that reduce crop productivity are often rainfall and temperature (IPCC, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop production in northwestern Ethiopian highlands under changing climate

Misganaw,

Addisu,

Alemayhu

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change is the most serious threat to agricultural productivity. Ethiopia's agricultural sector is affected by climate change. The northern part of Ethiopia is among the drought prone and topographically diversified areas. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of climate change on crop yields, assess the pattern of rainfall maximum and lowest temperatures and assess the trajectory of selected crop yields. Historical weather station and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) power data were collected from 1981 to 2020. The Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope (SS) method estimator were employed to estimate the trends and the direction of the trend. RClimDex package is used for climate extreme analysis. Nine rainfall and 11 temperature indices from a list of 27 extreme rainfall and temperature indices were used. The study found that the rainfall showed a significant decreasing and insignificant decreasing trend in Farta and Yilmana Densa districts, respectively. Maximum and minimum temperatures in both sites showed increasing trends. Rainfall happenings become more unanticipated, owing to the precipitation concentration index and anomaly trends. The majority of the indicators for extreme rainfall at both sites showed a downward trend. With the exception of the duration of cold spells, the annual lowest value of the daily minimum temperature, cold days and cold nights, the majority of the extreme temperature indices at both sites showed an increasing trend. The principal crop yields were connected with rainfall and temperature fluctuation, according to Pearson's product–moment correlation results, although the effects varied by crop and region. In summary, rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation may have a negative influence on agricultural activities, especially crop productivity.

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Assessment of Current and Future Climate Change Impact on Soil Loss Rate of Agewmariam Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

Cited by 21 publications

References 41 publications

Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

Spatial-Temporal Variability of Future Rainfall Erosivity and Its Impact on Soil Loss Risk in Kenya

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Crop production in northwestern Ethiopian highlands under changing climate

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