Assessment of extreme precipitation through climate change indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

Ortíz-Gómez, Ruperto; Muro-Hernández, L. Javier; Flowers-Cano, Roberto S.

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03293-2

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Climate change significantly affects the water cycle (Madsen et al, 2014;Zobel et al, 2018;Ortiz-Gómez et al, 2020). Obtaining highquality water resource forecast data under climate change is critical for sustainable water resource development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Assessment and Future Prediction Using CMIP6 and CMIP5 for Annual Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Simulation

Huo

Chen

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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This study assesses the improvement of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for precipitation simulation. Precipitation simulations under different future climate scenarios are also compared in this work. The results show that: 1) CMIP6 has no overall advantage over CMIP5 in simulating total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and maximum consecutive dry days (CDD). The performance of CMIP6 increases or decreases regionally in PRCPTOT and consecutive dry days. But it is slightly worse than CMIP5 in simulating very wet days (R95pTOT). 2) Comparing the trend test results of CMIP5 and CMIP6 in the future, there are more areas with significant trend based on Mann–Kendall test in CMIP6 compared with that of CMIP5. The differences in PRCPTOT are mainly found in Amazon Basin and Western Africa. The differences between the R95pTOT trends mainly noticeable in South America and Western Africa, and the differences in CDD are mainly reflected in Central Asia, Sahara Desert and central South America. 3) In Southern South America and Western North America, the PRCPTOT changing rate of CMIP6 in the future under various scenarios is always greater than that of CMIP5; in Alaska, Western Africa, Southern Africa, the PRCPTOT changing rate of CMIP6 in the future under various scenarios is always less than that of CMIP5. In Southern South America, the R95pTOT changing rate of CMIP6 in the future under various scenarios is always greater than that of CMIP5; in Alaska, East Asia, North Asia, the R95pTOT changing rate of CMIP6 in the future under various scenarios is always less than that of CMIP5. In almost half of the regions, the CDD changing rate of CMIP6 is less than that of CMIP5 under all scenarios, namely Australia, Amazon Basin, Southern South America, Central America, Western North America, Central North America, Eastern North America, Central Asia, Tibet.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Assessment and Future Prediction Using CMIP6 and CMIP5 for Annual Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Simulation

Huo

Chen

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…In addition, for each index, we calculated the regional averages as the arithmetic mean of the values of all the stations used in this study (e.g. Ortiz-G omez et al, 2020).…”

Section: Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This aspect stimulated the proliferation of a relevant number of regional‐scale studies focused on the variability and trend of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices (e.g. Alexander et al, 2006; Keggenhoff et al, 2014; Klein Tank et al, 2006; Ortiz‐Gómez et al, 2020; Peterson et al, 2002; Skansi et al, 2013; X. Zhang et al, 2000). According to Limsakul and Singhruck (2016), a local‐scale evaluation of changes in extreme events is essential not only from a strictly scientific perspective, but also for the design of effective strategies for management of agriculture and water supply sources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Signals of change in the Campania region rainfall regime: An analysis of extreme precipitation indices (2002–2021)

Capozzi,

Rocco,

Annella

et al. 2023

Meteorological Applications

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It is widely known that precipitation is a key variable of the hydrological cycle that is strongly affected by recent climate changes. Therefore, there is a growing interest in research activities focused on alteration of rainfall regime, as it conditions the planning of countermeasures against flood and landslide hazards. The available literature about precipitation tendencies over Italian peninsula offers a limited number of studies about recent changes of extreme events and precipitation intensity. This work aims at adding a contribution to fill this research gap, investigating the changes in rainfall regime observed over the 2002–2021 period in the Campania region (southern Italy). To pursue this aim, a dataset including daily precipitation records collected at 107 stations was analysed both through 11 indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and through the Standardized Precipitation Index in order to detect signals of changes in extreme events and to assess tendencies towards drier or wetter conditions. The Theil‐Sen method and the Mann–Kendall non‐parametric test were employed to evaluate the trends and their statistical significance. The main results emerging from this work are (i) an increasing tendency in precipitation intensity and in the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall events in autumn, mainly in the northern part of the region and in the mountainous areas, (ii) an upward trend of the duration of the longest wet spell in the coastal areas and (iii) an increasing trend of dry spells in spring and in summer in the Gulf of Salerno.

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“…[23] found that the variability of the precipitation annual indices was partially linked to natural variations of the combined effects of ENSO/PDO, and that most of the trends were explained by the PDO. Finally, two recent studies on Zacatecas reached contrasting conclusions regarding the precipitation trend, probably due to differences in the database period, since one of them argued that precipitation increased (period 1976-2015) [51] and the other that it decreased (period 1961-2014) [52].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Potential Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Climate of a Small Basin in Central Mexico

2022

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One of the main current challenges is detecting changes in the climate at the regional level. The present study tried to address this issue by looking for some influence of large-scale climate oscillations on the climate of a small and complex topography basin in Central Mexico. We collected temperature and precipitation data from 44 climate stations within an area of up to 20 km around the Apatlaco River sub-basin (~30 km south of Mexico City) during the period 1950–2013. Posteriorly, quality analysis and homogenization of the climate databases were performed by using the Climatol algorithm. We analyzed the trend of five ETCCDI climate indices through several statistical tests. Finally, we calculated simple Pearson correlations of those indices with four climate oscillation indices that have affected Mexico’s climate in the recent past. The results revealed that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation had a clear influence on four of the five indices analyzed in the study area. The summer days and the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures accounted for a small increase in the temperature of the middle east (urban) basin compared to the middle west (rural), which could be a manifestation of the heat island effect or the difference in soil type (and therefore albedo) of the two zones. As expected, the midsummer drought effect predominated in most of the sub-basin, with only the uppermost part showing monsoon-type precipitation during a typical year.

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Assessment of extreme precipitation through climate change indices in Zacatecas, Mexico

Cited by 14 publications

References 55 publications

Comparative Assessment and Future Prediction Using CMIP6 and CMIP5 for Annual Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Simulation

Comparative Assessment and Future Prediction Using CMIP6 and CMIP5 for Annual Precipitation and Extreme Precipitation Simulation

Signals of change in the Campania region rainfall regime: An analysis of extreme precipitation indices (2002–2021)

Potential Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Climate of a Small Basin in Central Mexico

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