Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

Jaglom, Wendy S.; McFarland, James; Colley, Michelle; Mack, Charlotte; Venkatesh, Boddu N.; Miller, Rawlings; Haydel, Juanita; Schultz, Peter A.; Perkins, Bill; Casola, J.H.; Martinich, Jeremy; Cross, Paul; Kolian, Michael; Kayin, Serpil

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.032

Cited by 65 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…On the one hand, this allows us to clearly pinpoint the effect of climate change on Swiss hydropower and its market implications. On the other hand, we are not able to show the overall impact of climate change on the electricity system as some seasonalities underlying our inputs such as high demand in winter and low demand in summer might shift under climate change (see e.g., [7,8,31,[51][52][53]). …”

Section: Discussion and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Hydropower represents an important pillar of electricity systems in many countries. It not only plays an important role in mitigating climate change, but is also subject to climate-change impacts. In this paper, we use the Swiss electricity market model Swissmod to study the effects of changes in water availability due to climate change on Swiss hydropower. Swissmod is an electricity dispatch model with a plant-level representation of 96% of Swiss hydropower plants and their interrelations within cascade structures. Using this detailed model in combination with spatially disaggregated climate-change runoff projections for Switzerland, we show that climate change has ambiguous impacts on hydropower and on the overall electricity system. Electricity prices and overall system costs increase under dry conditions and decrease under average or wet conditions. While the change of seasonal patterns, with a shift to higher winter runoff, has positive impacts, the overall yearly inflow varies under hydrological conditions. While average and wet years yield an increase in inflows and revenues, dry years become drier, resulting in the opposite effect. Even though different in magnitude, the direction of impacts persists when applying the same changes in inflows to the 2050 electricity system.

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Section: Discussion and Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

et al. 2018

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“…Relative to the reference period , the population weighted HDD+CDD averaged over Serbia will decrease by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) up to 11.2% and 13.3% according to the A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively. Although this means a reduction in the total required energy for heating and cooling, the increased electricity demand for cooling will probably lead to higher costs, because electricity is more expensive than the central heating by natural gas, heating oil, or biomass (Jaglom et al, 2014).…”

Section: Future Changes Of Hdd and Cddmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Janković¹,

Podraščanin²,

Djurdjević³

2019

Időjárás

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Abstract⎯ This study analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) in the 21st century over Serbia with the regional climate model (RCM) EBU-POM under two different forcing scenarios (A1B and A2). The validation of the model shows that the model reproduces the spatial variability, magnitude, and annual cycles of HDD and CDD for the reference period very well. According to both scenarios, a significant decrease of HDD and increase of CDD is expected all over Serbia. The simulations show a spatial heterogeneity in the potential changes, with the largest decrease of HDD in southern (mountainous) Serbia and largest increase of CDD in northern (lowland) Serbia. Results also show that by the end of the 21st century, the existing ratio between populations weighted regional mean CDD and HDD of 1:7.3 could be reduced to 1:2.3 according to the A1B scenario and 1:2.0 according to the A2 scenario. At the end of the 21st century cooling season length will be for about two times longer than at the reference period, while length of the heating season will be reduced for about 25%. According to both scenarios model projected an increase of the heating and cooling season temperature through 21st century by slightly less than 2 °C. Our study is the first research of future changes in HDD and CDD over Serbia based on regional climate modeling. Results of the research should help the policy of energy management and planning through provided indications of future spatial and seasonal changes of HDD and CDD within Serbia.

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“…Engineering models and simple thermodynamics suggest that electricity supply and transmission systems should suffer efficiency losses at high temperatures (108), but these effects are empirically challenging to measure in the presence of fluctuating demand. Evidence indicates that river-water temperatures can influence electricity prices (109), nuclear power capacity utilization may fall with high temperature (110), and droughts can shift generation away from hydropower and toward carbon-intensive fuel sources (111,112), but it is unclear whether these findings generalize.…”

Section: Economic Impacts: Energy Supply and Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and economic impacts of climate

Carleton

Hsiang

2016

Science

925

509

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BACKGROUND: For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics.ADVANCES: Past scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year −1 . Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-ofcentury impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year −1 , comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year −1 projected from future warming. Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate-why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed "adaptation...

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Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

Cited by 65 publications

References 13 publications

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower

Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia

Social and economic impacts of climate

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