Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Coppola, Erika; Nogherotto, Rita; Ciarlo, James M.; Giorgi, Filippo; Meijgaard, E. van; Kadygrov, Nikolay; Iles, Carley; Corre, Lola; Sandstad, Marit; Somot, Samuel; Nabat, Pierre; Vautard, Robert; Levavasseur, Guillaume; Schwingshackl, Clemens; Sillmann, Jana; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Christensen, Ole; Boberg, Fredrik; Sørland, Silje Lund; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Bülow, Katharina; Teichmann, Claas; Warrach‐Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

doi:10.1029/2019jd032356

Cited by 158 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…With the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, estimated changes are thus usually moderate in comparison of the uncertainty. With the RCP8.5 however and in accordance to Coppola et al (2020), the bipolar pattern is stronger in both seasons with an increase of precipitation in the North of Europe (with areas higher than +35% in winter) and a decrease in the South (with areas lower than -35% in both seasons). The demarcation between regions with decreasing or increasing precipitation trends (in white) shifts northwards in summer and southwards in winter.…”

supporting

confidence: 57%

“…In this study, the seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation changes at the end of the century (Fig. 7) obtained with the RCP8.5 scenario can be compared to Figures 1 and 5 in Coppola et al (2020). The spatial patterns of these changes are obviously very similar (a larger projected warming in the North and Northeast of Europe in winter, in the South in summer, positive precipitation changes in the Northern part and negative changes in the Southern part, with a different zero-change line in winter and summer).…”

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is difficult to have a precise comparison considering the different color scales, but different factors could explain potential differences. First, the MME considered in this study is larger than in Coppola et al (2020), with one more GCM (GFDL-ESM2) and two more RCMs (ALARO-0 and HadREM3-GA7) having strong influence on mean temperature changes in winter (GFDL-ESM2 and ALARO-0) and summer (HadREM3-GA7) and summer precipitation changes (HadREM3-GA7). Secondly, as discussed above, the method of estimation (i.e.…”

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Secondly, as discussed above, the method of estimation (i.e. balanced versus direct estimates) also impacts estimates of mean projected changes, though it is difficult to quantify in comparison to Coppola et al (2020) due to the different MME.…”

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Its individual contribution is nearly always below 20% except very locally for the Alps and the Carpathians for winter temperature and the Channel for summer temperature. Jacob et al, 2014;Fernández et al, 2019;Coppola et al, 2020;Vautard et al, 2020). Direct averages are however likely to be poor estimates of mean changes in the case of unbalanced and/or incomplete ensembles.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Evin

Somot²,

Hingray

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Large Multiscenarios Multimodel Ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by Global Climate Models (GCM) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse Scenario-GCM-RCM matrices, these large ensembles are however very unbalanced, which makes uncertainty analyses impossible with standard approaches. In this paper, the uncertainty assessment is carried out by applying an advanced statistical approach, called QUALYPSO, to a very large ensemble of 87 EURO-CORDEX climate projections, the largest ensemble ever produced for regional projections in Europe. This analysis provides i) the most up-to-date and balanced estimates of mean changes for near-surface temperature and precipitation in Europe, ii) the total uncertainty of projections and its partition as a function of time, and iii) the list of the most important contributors to the model uncertainty. For changes of total precipitation and mean temperature in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), the uncertainty due to RCMs can be as large as the uncertainty due to GCMs at the end of the century (2071–2099). Both uncertainty sources are mainly due to a small number of individual models clearly identified. Due to the highly unbalanced character of the MME, mean estimated changes can drastically differ from standard average estimates based on the raw ensemble of opportunity. For the RCP4.5 emission scenario in Central-Eastern Europe for instance, the difference between balanced and direct estimates are up to 0.8 °C for summer temperature changes and up to 20 % for summer precipitation changes at the end of the century.

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supporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mean Future Changes: Importance Of the Mme Configuration Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Evin

Somot²,

Hingray

2021

Preprint

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The changing geography of wine climates and its implications on adaptation in the Italian Alps

Tscholl,

Egarter Vigl

2024

Climate Resilience

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Wine production and quality both strongly depend on suitable climatic conditions. Increasing the climate resilience of wine regions is therefore of critical importance but requires instruments to evaluate shifts in climatic conditions and growing suitability. This evaluation is particularly challenging in mountain viticultural areas due to their complex topoclimatic patterns, yet they offer the possibility to analyze climate change impacts and adaptation strategies across various climatic conditions and cultivated varieties. Here, we assessed historical and future bioclimatic conditions and identified effective adaptation strategies toward more sustainable and climate‐resilient wine production in the mountain winegrowing regions within South Tyrol in the Italian Alps. We found significant changes in climatic conditions under future scenarios, such as an increase in the Huglin index (HI) and cool night index (CNI) as well as a decreased dryness index (DI), causing an expansion of suitable areas for viticulture as well as a spread of unprecedented climatic conditions in traditional vineyards. Impacts and suitable adaptation options varied depending on climate type and grape variety, highlighting the need for targeted solutions that balance the need for high‐quality wine production with environmental protection and sustainability. Higher elevated areas over 1000 m a.s.l. will experience an increased suitability raising the need for restrictions regarding the expansion of vineyards to avoid degradation of natural ecosystems and biodiversity declines. In contrast, many traditional winegrowing areas will need to implement a combination of short‐ and long‐term adaptation measures to maintain traditional wine styles. Our findings provide a framework for the assessment of viticultural suitability and the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies for the sustainable cultivation of wine grapes in a changing climate that applies to a variety of climates and grape varieties.

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Wintertime blocking regimes over Europe are projected to become less persistent in a warming climate

Dorrington

Strommen

Fabiano³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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To better understand the impacts of climate change on Europe, it is important to understand changes in the wintertime largescale circulation. The framework of weather regimes provides a powerful tool for studying the highly nonlinear Euro-Atlantic circulation, but exactly how these regimes will be altered by anthropogenic climate change is still imperfectly understood. Using the recently developed approach of geopotential-jet regimes, applied to an ensemble of state-of-the-art CMIP6 models, we show that the centres of action of anticyclonic regimes are not projected to change substantially by the end of century, even under an extreme warming scenario. Instead, the regimes are expected to become less persistent, making long-lived blocking events less likely. We show that these two key elements of the regime response can be captured in a simple Lorenz-like model subjected to parameter variations, emphasising the conceptual link between observed atmospheric regimes and the regimes identified in basic mathematical systems.

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Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Cited by 158 publications

References 63 publications

Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble

The changing geography of wine climates and its implications on adaptation in the Italian Alps

Wintertime blocking regimes over Europe are projected to become less persistent in a warming climate

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