Assessment of the risk of African swine fever introduction into Finland using NORA-a rapid tool for semiquantitative assessment of the risk

Abstract

SummaryThe NORA rapid risk assessment tool was developed for situations where there is a change in the disease status of easily transmissible animal diseases in neighbouring countries or in countries with significant interactions with Finland. The goal was to develop a tool that is quick to use and will provide consistent results to support risk management decisions. The model contains 63 questions that define the potential for entry and exposure by nine different pathways. The magnitude of the consequences is defined by 23 statements. The weight of different pathways is defined according to the properties of the assessed disease. The model was built as an Excel spreadsheet and is intended for use by animal health control administrators. As an outcome, the model gives the possible pathways of disease entry into the country, an overall approximation for the probability of entry and the subsequent exposure, an overall estimate for the consequences and a combined overall risk estimate (probability multiplied by magnitude of consequences). Model validity was assessed by expert panels. Outside Africa, African swine fever is currently established in Russia and Sardinia. In addition, there have been cases in both wild boar and domestic pigs in

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A Review of Risk Factors of African Swine Fever Incursion in Pig Farming within the European Union Scenario

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Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever

“…Most commonly, risk assessments are developed to assess the risk for a single disease and introduction pathway. In recent years, however, several generic risk models or frameworks have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk for multiple animal diseases (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15). In contrast to bespoke models, these generic risk assessment (RA) tools allow for a more rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases.…”