The paper presents the results of predicting the yield of oats in the conditions of abandoned lands of the former pilot production farm (PPF) of the All-Russian Research Institute of Reclaimed Lands, located in the center of the Tver region. There were used the data of long-term monitoring (1997-2020) of the yield of this crop in clean and cover crops (with under-sowing of grasses) on the agroecological transect of the Gubino agroecopolygon located within the PPF. With the help of statistical and mathematical modeling, regularities in the formation of oat yields within the transect were revealed. On the basis of these formulas, predicted oat yields were calculated for the entire territory of abandoned lands, and maps of its variability under the conditions of the protected area and measures for intensifying grain production were also created. It has been established that oats in pure crops react most strongly to the content of exchangeable potassium in soils, to water supply and humus content, while in cover crops the yield largely depends on mobile phosphorus in the soil and the degree of illumination and swampiness of the territory. More than 92 % of the PPF area is potentially capable of providing oat yield in clean crops from 2.7 to 3.1 centners/ha, and an increased oat yield (3.0-3.3 centners/ha) in cover crops can be obtained only on ≈ 44 % of the farm area. The main methods for increasing the yield of oats in pure crops are the application of potash and organic fertilizers, as well as the preservation of moisture in the soil, while expanding the area of cover crops involves the use of oat varieties that react poorly to excess phosphorus in the soil. Intensification of oat production in clean crops is possible on the area of 6026 ha, and in cover crops only 790 ha, since in the rest of the territory its productivity is limited by insufficient illumination and waterlogged soils.
