Assessment of the vulnerability of a coastal freshwater system to climatic and non-climatic changes: A system dynamics approach

Abstract

Water resources management faces many challenges in coastal areas of developing countries, where climate change coupled with high rates of population growth and urbanization have the potential to cause severe water scarcity. Of particular concern, are sea level rise and altered precipitation regimes that will influence spatial and temporal patterns of river discharge, water levels and saltwater penetration in estuaries. A sound understanding of factors affecting the vulnerability of coastal freshwater systems is therefore needed to mitigate the potential impacts of climatic and non-climatic changes. In this study, a system dynamics modeling approach was employed to explore the vulnerability of the coastal freshwater system in Da Do Basin, Vietnam to projected sea level rise, upstream flow decline and socioeconomic development. This system includes the Da Do River and irrigation channels that receive freshwater through sluice gates from the Van Uc and Lach Tray rivers. The model was developed as a learning tool for decision-makers to improve their understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamic behaviors of the system and to inform adaptation decision-making by allowing exploration of plausible future scenarios. The model was developed, calibrated and validated using both historical data and expert knowledge elucidated via stakeholder consultation. Model results indicate that under current conditions,

Using System Dynamic Modeling for Improving Water Security in the Coastal Area: A Literature Review

“…Land use sub-model representing total of urban and services, industrial, agricultural, and bare land area. This component affects socio-economic subsystem [42].…”

“…There is a decision of water resources management belong at different levels, which means the concept of decision making at the lowest appropriate level needs to be guided in the development of IWRM [13]. The basin facing significant water-related issues (i.e., flood damage, sedimentation, and subsequent risks to water security and environmental degradation) [42]. 4.…”

“…The SDM can predict supply and demand for water resources in the coastal setting. The range of time prediction is diverse in some papers, such as for 19, 30, 40, 50, 60, 100, and 200 years period of time [6], [12], [34], [35], [36], [37], [38], [39], [40], [41], [42], [43].…”

“…The population growth and human activities are involved in ecological sustainable development concept as key factors [36], [52]. There is interaction between population, workforce population, and GDP variables [42]. Furthermore, the economic welfare, employment, flood hazard, and vegetation area will affect this subsystem [42].…”

Desalinization and Salinization: A Review of Major Challenges for Coastal Reservoirs

“…In recent years, rapid economic development has exacerbated the problem of water shortages, especially in coastal plains (Herrera-León et al, 2018), where meeting demands for freshwater can be a challenge (Phan et al, 2018). This situation is made more complex by the irregular spatial and temporal distributions of freshwater resources in these areas.…”