Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity

Abstract

Abstract. Due to its economic and nutritional value, the world production of chestnuts is increasing as new stands are being planted in various regions of the world. This work focuses on the relation between weather and annual chestnut production to model the role of weather, to assess the impacts of climate change and to identify appropriate locations for new groves. The exploratory analysis of chestnut production time series and the striking increase of production area have motivated the use for chestnut productivity. A large set of meteorological variables and remote sensing indices were computed and their role on chestnut productivity evaluated with composite and correlation analyses. These results allow for the identification of the variables cluster with a high correlation and impact on chestnut production. Then, different selection methods were used to develop multiple regression models able to explain a considerable fraction of productivity variance: (i) a simulation model (R 2 -value = 87 %) based on the winter and summer temperature and on spring and summer precipitation variables; and, (ii) a model to predict yearly chestnut productivity (R 2 -value of 63 %) with five months in advance, combining meteorological variables and NDVI. Goodness of fit statistic, cross validation and residual analysis demonstrate the model's quality, usefulness and consistency of obtained results.

Assessment of Boron Application in Chestnuts: Nut Yield and Quality

“…Results suggest that chestnut productivity, several quality parameters, and chemical composition of chestnuts are very much influenced by year, which reinforces the importance of climatic conditions on chestnut behaviour and nut quality (Pereira et al, 2011;Dinis et al, 2011a,b;Ferreira-Cardoso, 2007).…”

“…For the specific conditions of Portugal, Gomes-Laranjo (2006), Pereira et al (2011) and Dinis et al (2011a) identify some temperature and precipitation predictors, namely mean air temperature from January to March, maximum air temperature in January, July, and September, and the accumulated precipitation of April, May, and September as climatic variables with a high correlation and impact on chestnut production and fruit quality. The results obtained in this experiment seem to corroborate the selection of meteorological parameters by Pereira et al (2011), such as the accumulated rainfall of April, July, and September for a prediction model to simulate chestnut productivity.…”

“…According to Shorrocks (1997) and Huang et al (2005), both temperature and rainfall influence may exacerbate B deficiency and crop response to B application. The recent work of Pereira et al (2011), carried out in NE region, also emphasizes the impact of temperature and precipitation on chestnut productivity and nut quality and on the chemical composition of the kernel (Ferreira-Cardoso, 2007). describe B deficiency symptoms in chestnut, and show that B disorders affect both fruit setting and chestnut production.…”

Controls and forecasts of nitrate yields in forested watersheds: A view over mainland Portugal

“…In relation to this, the quality of surface water bodies in mountainous regions tend to suffer degradation from upstream tributaries towards the main stream (Figueiredo et al, 2012), because of a commonly observed altitudinal zonation of land uses whereby forests are located around the headwaters while agriculture and population are concentrated at lower altitudes where soils are more productive (e.g., Rhoades and Thompson, 1975;Pereira et al, 2011). Given their better quality, headwaters may provide a source of high quality water for public and private supply (Santos et al, 2015a), apart from commonly supporting important salmonid fisheries and macroinvertebrate communities (Hutton et al, 2008;Santos et al, 2015b) that are often of a high conservation value (Varandas et al, 2013).…”

Preface "Weather-related hazards and risks in agriculture"

“…The maximum drought in each episode was found usually in the summer. Pereira et al (2011) work focuses on the relation between weather and annual chestnut production to model the role of weather, to assess the impacts of climate change and to identify appropriate locations for new groves. In order to do so a large set of meteorological variables and Normalize Deviation Vegetation Index (NDVI) were computed and their role on chestnut productivity evaluated with composite and correlation analyses identifying variables cluster with an impact on chestnut production.…”