Assessment on Land-Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Countries in Central Asia from the Perspective of Self-Supplied Agricultural Products

Abstract

Despite the declining hunger in Central Asia, food insecurity remains an important issue due to the dry climate. Taking Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan as examples, this study assesses their land-water resources carrying capacity in 1999, 2009, and 2018, on the premise that agricultural water and farmland are spatially matched based on the “buckets effect”, using the ecological footprint and water footprint methods. Results show the following: (1) the total farmland area in Central Asia is sufficient to achieve food self-sufficiency; the available farmland area is 2.45 times that of the farmland required for self-sufficiency in 1999, which decreased to 1.71 times in 2009, but slightly increased to 1.92 times in 2018. Specifically, Kazakhstan maintains a surplus of more than 15 × 106 ha in farmland, while the other 4 countries could not achieve self-sufficiency. (2) The water resources pressure rises; the available agricultural water resource (AAWR) in Central Asia is 3.07 times that of the water demand for agricultural irrigation (WDAI), and 3.06 times that of the water demand for irrigation and environmental purification (WDIEP) in 1999, which decreased to 1.69 times of WDAI and to 1.60 times of WDIEP in 2018. Tajikistan has the highest level of water surplus, followed by Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan do not have enough water to sustain agricultural production. (3) The trend of land-water resources carrying capacity declines in Central Asia. In 1999, 2009, and 2018, the land-water resources could support the population’s food demand in this region when only considering farmland matched with WDAI. However, the population carrying capacity deficit would emerge if we considered the matching farmland with WDIEP.

Challenges in dealing with water pollution issues in the West Java island

“…In research in Central Asia, the carrying capacity of water resources contributes across sectors and significantly contributes to developing sustainable agriculture and increasing food security. The research noted several things to deal with the issue of water carrying capacity in the future, including the need to evaluate improvements in agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation for water, evaluation of the global food trading system, focus on climate change issues within the framework of analyzing the carrying capacity of groundwater that has an impact on sustainable agricultural systems and food security (Zhao et al, 2022) According to the Regulation of the Minister of the Environment Number 17 of 2009 concerning guidelines for determining the carrying capacity of the environment in regional spatial planning, the determination of the carrying capacity of the environment is carried out by knowing the capacity of the natural environment and resources to support human activities or residents who use space for survival. The regulation also states that the capacity of natural resources depends on the capability, availability and demand for land and water.…”

Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Development and Water Resources–Ecological Management Capacity in China Based on Nighttime Lighting Data

“…Some scholars have used the system dynamics method to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources [21,22]. Zhao et al [23] evaluated the carrying capacity of land-water resources in Central Asia by using ecological and water footprint methods. Wang et al [24] used the super-efficiency DEA (data envelopment analysis) model to measure the water resource utilization efficiency of 30 provinces in China.…”

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Food Supply–Demand Balance in Uzbekistan under Different Scenarios

“…To date, research on food production in Uzbekistan has focused on yield analysis, the relationship with health, crop diversity, spatial patterns and agronomic practices and their influencing factors [23][24][25][26][27]. Food consumption studies have mostly concentrated on food waste, eating habits and health and the factors influencing consumption [23,[28][29][30]. In recent years, many scholars have conducted in-depth studies on the assessment and forecasting of food production, impact of food trade, and food security [26,30].…”