Objective
To evaluate trends in DOR assignment in the SART CORS database and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting poor ovarian response (POR) as defined in ESHRE’s ‘Bologna Criteria’ (2011).
Design
Retrospective cohort study.
Setting
Not applicable.
Patients
181,536 fresh, autologous ART cycles reported to SART by US clinics in 2004 and 2011 (earliest and most recent available reporting years).
Intervention(s)
None.
Main Outcome Measure(s)
DOR assignment was the primary exposure. POR, defined as cycle cancellation for poor response or <4 oocytes retrieved following conventional gonadotropin stimulation (>149 IU FSH daily), was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were live birth and number of oocytes retrieved. DOR prevalence, power of DOR and FSH (≥12 mIU/mL) to predict POR, and live birth in POR cycles were also calculated.
Results
DOR prevalence increased from 19 to 26% from 2004 to 2011. Among cycles clinically assigned as DOR, incidence of POR decreased from 32 to 30%, and live birth improved from 15 to 17%. Comparing basal FSH ≥12 versus clinical assignment of DOR, basal FSH had a higher specificity (92.2% vs.81.6%) and PPV (38.3%vs.30.9%) for predicting POR. Live birth among POR cycles was 4%.
Conclusions
DOR diagnosis is increasing, and accuracy remains poor, despite the availability of additional diagnostic parameters such as antral follicle count and anti-mullerian hormone. POR entailed poor outcomes, but the majority of patients clinically assigned as DOR did not experience POR. Development and utilization of more accurate predictors of POR are needed to minimize patient distress resulting from over-diagnosis.