Association between anomalies of moisture flux and extreme runoff events in the south-eastern Alps

Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

doi:10.5194/nhess-11-915-2011

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Mudelsee et al (2004) applied a point-wise biserial correlation coefficient between the flood events and sea level pressure and the 500 hPa geopotential height for the summer flooding of the river Oder and Elbe in eastern central Europe, obtaining a pattern that is very similar to the large-scale atmospheric variability mode of positive EOF1 proposed herein. Müller and Kaspar (2011) obtained similar results for the summer floods in the Mura and Drava (south-eastern Alps) catchments, typical transboundary rivers of the eastern slopes of the Alps. The floods in these rivers were frequently connected with moisture fluxes from the east or the north at the 850 hPa level.…”

Section: Principal Low-frequency Atmospheric Mode and Flood Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 69%

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Peña

Schulte

Badoux

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Section: Principal Low-frequency Atmospheric Mode and Flood Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 69%

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Peña

Schulte

Badoux

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Several authors (Pfister, 1999;Knox, 2000;Magny et al, 2003;Benito et al, 2003;Schulte et al, 2012;Ortega and Garzón, 2009) contend that the most significant variations in the frequency of flooding have occurred during cold climate phases, particularly during transitional stages of climatic pulses. This pattern has also been observed in Switzerland during the last 500 years (Schmocker-Fackel and Naef, 2010b;Glur et al, 2013;Wirth et al, 2013a, b), although after the 1970s the climate and flood pattern changed.…”

Section: Short-term External Forcing On Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and atmospheric circulation patterns on summer floods in Switzerland

Peña¹,

Schulte²,

Badoux³

et al. 2014

Preprint

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Abstract. The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents an index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of solar and climate forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22 year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the summer principal mode: the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, while those basins located in the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency atmospheric circulation pattern related to the major floods occurred over the period from 1800 to 2009: the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation persists in negative phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and 1881–1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of SNAO prevail during warmer climate of the last four decades (flood clusters from 1977 to present).

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“…The southern side of the Alps (from southwestern Switzerland to southeastern Austria) and the east of Austria show another autumn maximum of heavy precipitation days (Seibert et al ., ; Stucki et al ., ). The shift from summer to autumn events becomes more visible when moving further south (e.g., to Slovenia) (Müller and Kašpar, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial patterns and time distribution of central European extreme precipitation events between 1961 and 2013

Gvoždíková

Müller

Kašpar

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation extremes always have an area‐related effect, emphasizing the need for a spatial assessment of extreme precipitation events that sometimes show similar behaviour in precipitation patterns due to recurring synoptic features. Our study investigates spatial patterns in the extreme precipitation events (EPEs) that occurred in central Europe between 1961 and 2013. As many as 53 maximum events were selected by the weather extremity index (WEI), reflecting simultaneously the spatial extent and the return periods of t day precipitation totals within an event‐adjusted study area. The extremity of the EPEs is further evaluated at two lower spatial levels, the main river basins (the Rhine, Weser/Ems, Elbe, Danube, and Oder) and 20 smaller subcatchments, which enables a more detailed study of the events’ spatial structure and similarity. A correlation analysis demonstrated that heavy precipitation occurs simultaneously not only in neighbouring subcatchments but also in rather distant regions with similar orientations of mountain ranges (e.g., in the Elbe‐a and Danube‐b subcatchments). In contrast, strong negative correlations appeared between several subcatchments in the Oder and Rhine River basins, which exclude heavy precipitation from occurring simultaneously in both basins. Similar spatial patterns are obvious among precipitation extremes; using the relative WEI values as the similarity measure, agglomerative hierarchical clustering detected two well‐separated groups of events, namely, W‐CE and E‐CE, affecting mainly the western and eastern parts of central Europe, respectively. A finer division of the EPEs distinguished five clusters of events with different spatio‐temporal characteristics. Only two clusters, ED (Elbe‐Danube) and O (Oder), were represented among the top 10 central European EPEs, which occurred exclusively from the end of May to the beginning of September. Three other clusters consisted of generally lower extreme events rather equally distributed throughout the year.

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Association between anomalies of moisture flux and extreme runoff events in the south-eastern Alps

Cited by 10 publications

References 17 publications

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland

Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and atmospheric circulation patterns on summer floods in Switzerland

Spatial patterns and time distribution of central European extreme precipitation events between 1961 and 2013

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