We all carry a few numbers around regarding the epidemiology of kidney disease. The US Renal Data System (USRDS) remains a treasure chest of robust information about secular trends in ESRD.1 Notably, annual adjusted incidence rates for new cases of ESRD have flattened, whereas absolute incidence counts increase as the base population enlarges.2 Prevalence rates for ESRD are rising, therefore, as a function of increasing incidence counts and the improved longevity of dialysis and transplant patients, all of which suggest that numbers of individuals living with ESRD will grow largely in proportion to size of the population.2 Although escalating expense for renal replacement therapy strains government and private insurance programs, 3 the leveling of adjusted incidence rate challenges the notion that we are facing a relentless epidemic outside of normal population growth and the emergence of younger obese diabetic patients that have not yet run their course of disease.Save for the outcome of AKI, 2 the largest feeder cohort for patients eventually needing renal replacement therapy is the prevalence of CKD in the general population 4 and what we believe about treatment possibilities. 5 The magnitude or validity of this pool currently derives from smaller data sources, particularly the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), which samples approximately 5,000 persons each year.6,7 CKD also has definition and staging problems 8 among other issues related to creatinine-based equations for renal function, where assays for measuring levels of serum creatinine have changed over time and made it harder to marry one annual trend to another.2 Sadly, the sensitivity of current guidelines staging CKD cannot predict who will progress among patients with early signs of disease. 8 The rate of decline of GFR before onset of CKD differs among races or ethnic groups, but traditional risk factors are not highly predictive of who will show decline. Save for a timely stab at modeling CKD from smaller cohorts, 9 there are no comprehensive datasets readily available for firmer projections of longitudinal progressivity.2 The Hoerger model 9 makes informed assumptions about progression and risk of diabetes and hypertension to predict that 47.1% of 30-year-old people have a lifetime risk of some degree of CKD and estimate that only 11% of patients with stage 3 CKD will ever progress to stage 5. 9 Of course, the estimated period prevalence of CKD in the general population greatly exceeds incidence rates for ESRD, 2,9 reminding us that counting everyone with any level of CKD greatly obscures real risk of renal failure.The burden of comorbidities embedded in the CKD population is also well known and of great interest to health care planners, particularly in regards to diabetes 10,11 and obese 12 and elderly 13 patients, and the contribution cost of comorbidities will vary depending on how new identifiers of progressive CKD are refined from future datasets. No one is sure all these risks are shared equally across the spectrum ...