Objective
To explore the predictive factors and establish a nomogram model for predicting relapse risk in primary membranous nephropathy (PMN).
Methods
The clinical, laboratory, pathological and follow-up data of patients with biopsy-proven membranous nephropathy were collected in the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University. A total of 400 PMN patients who achieved remission were assigned to the development group (
n
=β280) and validation group (
n
=β120) randomly. Cox regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine the predictive factors of relapse in PMN patients, a nomogram model was established based on the multivariate Cox regression analysis and validated in the validation group. C-index and calibration plots were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration performance of the model respectively.
Result
Hyperuricemia (HR = 2.938, 95% CI 1.875β4.605,
pβ<
0.001), high C-reactive protein (CRP) (HR = 1.147, 95% CI 1.086β1.211,
pβ<
0.001), and treatment with calcineurin inhibitors with or without glucocorticoids (HR = 2.845, 95%CI 1.361β5.946,
pβ=
0.005) were independent risk factors, while complete remission (HR = 0.420, 95%CI 0.270β0.655,
pβ<
0.001) was a protective factor for relapse of PMN according to multivariate Cox regression analysis, then a nomogram model for predicting relapse of PMN was established combining the above indicators. The C-indices of this model were 0.777 (95%CI 0.729β0.825) and 0.778 (95%CI 0.704β0.853) in the development group and validation group respectively. The calibration plots showed that the predicted relapse probabilities of the model were consistent with the actual probabilities at 1, 2 and 3βyears, which indicated favorable performance of this model in predicting the relapse probability of PMN.
Conclusions
Hyperuricemia, remission status, CRP and therapeutic regimen were predictive factors for relapse of PMN. A novel nomogram model with good discrimination and calibration was constructed to predict relapse risk in patients with PMN early.