Association of Short-term Exposure to Air Pollution With Mortality in Older Adults

Di, Qian; Dai, Lingzhen; Wang, Yun; Zanobetti, Antonella; Choirat, Christine; Schwartz, Joel; Dominici, Francesca

doi:10.1001/jama.2017.17923

Cited by 540 publications

(414 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…EPA, 2009, 2018c). Recent studies suggest that these risks apply even at very low exposure levels (Di, Q., Wang, Y., et al, 2017; Di, Q., Dai, L., et al, 2017). Compared to PM 2.5 , evidence regarding the health effects of PM 2.5-10 is less conclusive.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM 2.5 ) and coarse (PM 2.5‐10 ) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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“…The given intervals do not account for uncertainty in the shape or functional form of the exposure response. Although recent work has suggested that the impacts of short-term exposure to ozone are unlikely to have a lower concentration threshold (Di et al 2017), the validity of this assumption is not yet known for long-term exposure. The same arguments are true for exposure to UV radiation.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality tradeoff between air quality and skin cancer from changes in stratospheric ozone

Eastham

Keith

Barrett

2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Skin cancer mortality resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion has been widely studied. Similarly, there is a deep body of literature on surface ozone and its health impacts, with modeling and observational studies demonstrating that surface ozone concentrations can be increased when stratospheric air mixes to the Earth's surface. We offer the first quantitative estimate of the trade-off between these two effects, comparing surface air quality benefits and UV-related harms from stratospheric ozone depletion. Applying an idealized ozone loss term in the stratosphere of a chemistry-transport model for modern-day conditions, we find that each Dobson unit of stratospheric ozone depletion results in a net decrease in the global annual mortality rate of ∼40 premature deaths per billion population (d/bn/DU). The impacts are spatially heterogeneous in sign and magnitude, composed of a reduction in premature mortality rate due to ozone exposure of ∼80 d/bn/DU concentrated in Southeast Asia, and an increase in skin cancer mortality rate of ∼40 d/bn/DU, mostly in Western Europe. This is the first study to quantify air quality benefits of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the first to find that marginal decreases in stratospheric ozone around modern-day values could result in a net reduction in global mortality due to competing health impact pathways. This result, which is subject to significant methodological uncertainty, highlights the need to understand the health and environmental trade-offs involved in policy decisions regarding anthropogenic influences on ozone chemistry over the 21st century.

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“…It might be argued that indoor ozone exposure, although substantial, occurs at concentrations below a “health threshold.” However, recent studies do not support the presence of a threshold for short‐term mortality nor for adverse cardiorespiratory indicators …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Ozone in urban China: Impact on mortalities and approaches for establishing indoor guideline concentrations

et al. 2019

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Reducing indoor ozone levels may be an effective strategy to reduce total exposure and associated mortality. Here we estimate (a) premature mortalities attributable to ozone for China's urban population ≥25 years of age; (b) the fraction of total exposure occurring indoors; and (c) mortalities that can be potentially avoided through meeting current and more stringent indoor ozone standards/guidelines based on 1‐hour daily maxima. To estimate ozone‐attributable premature mortalities, we used hourly outdoor ozone concentrations measured at 1497 monitoring stations located in 339 Chinese cities and a published concentration‐response model. We proceeded to estimate province‐specific infiltration factors and co‐occurring hourly indoor ozone concentrations. For the year 2015, we estimated that indoor exposures accounted for 59% (95% confidence interval (CI): 26%‐79%) of the total ozone exposure that resulted in 70800 (95% CI: 35 900‐137 700) premature all‐cause mortalities in urban China. If the current Chinese indoor ozone standards (80 ppbv (160 µg/m3); 56 ppbv (112 µg/m3)) were met, the mean estimates of reduction in mortalities would be indistinguishable from zero. With stricter 1‐hour indoor ozone guidelines, the expected mortality reductions increase exponentially per unit decrease in indoor ozone. The analysis in this paper should help facilitate formulating present and future indoor ozone guidelines.

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Association of Short-term Exposure to Air Pollution With Mortality in Older Adults

Cited by 540 publications

References 37 publications

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Mortality tradeoff between air quality and skin cancer from changes in stratospheric ozone

Ozone in urban China: Impact on mortalities and approaches for establishing indoor guideline concentrations

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