Association of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability with the geophysical parameters over the Arctic region

Prabhu, Amita; Mahajan, P. N.; Khaladkar, R. M.

doi:10.1002/joc.2418

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Previous studies have suggested about forcings, other than El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influencing the inter-annual variability of ISMR like Arctic seaice (Amita et al 2012), winter climate anomalies over Europe (Rajeevan 2002;Pai 2004), Atlantic SST (Srivastava et al 2002;Goswami et al 2006) and Eurasian snow cover (e.g. Hahn and Shukla 1976;Bamzai and Kinter 1997;Kripalani and Kulkarni 1999) since it was first put forward by Blanford (1884).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

Prabhu

Kim

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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Nepal and Bangladesh, is influenced by local and remote forces. In terms of geographical size, NE-India constitutes of about 8% of India's total size. Its population is approximately 40 million, which represents around 3.1% of the total Indian population. This region has a predominantly humid sub-tropical climate with hot, humid summers, severe monsoons and mild winters. Along with the west coast of India, this region has some of the Indian sub-continent's last remaining rain forests, which supports diverse flora and fauna and several crop species. Geographically, two-thirds of the area is a hilly terrain interspersed with valleys and plains. The mean summer monsoon rainfall over the NE-Indian region is around 1400 mm making for huge water and hydropower potential. However, this region has been exhibiting a declining trend in the summer monsoon rainfall since the last 4-5 decades (see Fig. 3, Fig. 4a in Preethi et al. 2016). Hence, it becomes imperative to examine the possible drivers of this variability.Significance for long-term prediction of summer monsoon, considering its massive socio-economic impacts, have been widely attributed to the slowly varying boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and snow cover (Shukla 1998). In general, rainfall distribution pattern over different regions of India is inhomogeneous due to influence of several local and remote factors. For instance, over the central Indian plain region, monsoon trough and the Himalayas along with local and external factors play a dominant role in its interannual rainfall variability. Likewise, the northwest region is influenced by the dry climates of the Thar Desert and the Western Himalayas. Apparently from the geographical features as described above, the rain producing mechanism of NE rainfall is a complex phenomenon and is largely dominated by an elevated orography of the Eastern Himalayas and large forests. The NE sector may be considered as a separate macro-region within the Indian Abstract This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

Prabhu

Kim

et al. 2016

Clim Dyn

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“…The significant relationship between cluster time series in Arctic region and ISMR show spatial and temporal variability in positive and negative ESI-tendency [34].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Association between Arctic Circulation and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Kakade¹,

Kulkarni²

2017

J Climatol Weather Forecasting

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The cluster regions for different meteorological fields at lower, mid and upper troposphere are identified using Shared Nearest Neighbor (SNN) algorithm. The relationships among weather conditions over the Arctic cluster regions, Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and Arctic oscillation are studied. It is observed that Arctic oscillation and mid tropospheric zonal wind anomaly over cluster region [60°N-70°N; 5°W-55°W] are directly correlated with each other in winter season and this relationship in turn influences ISMR. During contrasting phases of ESI (Effective Strength Index) tendency, the significant inverse relationship between zonal wind anomaly over Arctic clusters and ISMR show spatial and temporal variability. During positive (negative) ESI-tendency, lower tropospheric (upper tropospheric) temperature and pressure anomalies over respective cluster regions in Arctic have relationship with ISMR.

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“…During negative ESI tendency, strong winds around the North Pole confine the cold Arctic air mass to the Arctic region causing surface cooling over this region, which is associated with above‐normal rainfall activity over India (Prabhu et al , ). Moreover, SO also restores positive phase before the beginning of monsoon, which is indicative of increased Indian rainfall activity.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During negative ESI tendency, eight independent cluster parameters are selected by cross-validation procedure, which show the least error in predicting the ISMR on the independent data set (RMSE = 5.83). During negative ESI tendency, strong winds around the North Pole confine the cold Arctic air mass to the Arctic region causing surface cooling over this region, which is associated with above-normal rainfall activity over India (Prabhu et al, 2012). Moreover, SO also restores positive phase before the beginning of monsoon, which is indicative of increased Indian rainfall activity.…”

Section: Linear and Non-linear Relationship Between Cluster Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India and its homogeneous regions

Kakade

Kulkarni

2016

Meteorological Applications

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ABSTRACT:The coherent regions for various fields such as sea level pressure, temperature, geopotential height and zonal wind anomalies at the surface, 850, 500 and 200 hPa levels in pre-monsoon months (January through May) and seasons (winter, spring) have been identified by applying the shared nearest neighbour algorithm. The fields over the corresponding cluster regions could be possible predictors for Indian summer monsoon rainfall as well as the rainfall over various homogeneous regions of India. The time series have been constructed by averaging the parameters over the respective clusters. The relationship between these time series and the summer monsoon rainfall over India and its well-defined homogeneous regions over India, (northwest India, central northeast India, northeast India, west central India and peninsular India), has been examined during the positive and negative phases of effective strength index tendency using the simple technique of multiple regression. Along with the linear relationship, the non-linear relationships between the cluster parameters and the seasonal rainfall have also been considered. Independent cluster parameters have been selected by cross-validation procedure and the performance of each predictive model is tested. The extreme yearly rainfall departures over India are qualitatively well predicted by the model. Also, the unprecedented droughts over India in 2002 and 2009, where all earlier models have failed to forecast, are well predicted by the present model. The performances of models for summer monsoon rainfall prediction over homogeneous regions of India are convincing.KEY WORDS shared nearest neighbour (SNN); cross validation; effective strength index (ESI) tendency

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Association of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability with the geophysical parameters over the Arctic region

Cited by 17 publications

References 30 publications

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

Association between Arctic Circulation and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India and its homogeneous regions

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