Asymmetric relationship of urbanization and CO2 emissions in less developed countries

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the urbanization of national populations has been a key concern for environmental scholars for several decades. Although sophisticated modeling techniques have been developed to explore the connection between increases in urban populations and CO2 emissions, none has attempted to assess whether declines in urbanization have an effect on emissions that is not symmetrical with that of growth in urbanization. The present study uses panel data on CO2 emissions and the percentage of individuals living in urban areas, as well as a variety of other structural factors, for less-developed countries from 1960–2010, to empirically assess whether the effect of growth in urban populations on emissions is symmetrical with the effect of decline. Findings indicate that the effect of growth/decline in urban populations on CO2 emissions is asymmetrical, where a decline in urbanization reduces emissions to a much greater degree than urbanization increases emissions. We hypothesize that this is at least in part because deurbanization is connected with disruptions to the production and distribution of goods and services and/or access to electricity and other energy sources. Our finding suggests that not only the absolute level of urbanization of nations matters for emissions, but also how the patterns of migration between rural and urban areas change over time. Future research should be mindful of the processes behind deurbanization when exploring socioeconomic drivers of CO2 emissions.

Homicide Rates and the Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization: A Longitudinal, Cross-National Analysis

“…Whatever the mechanism, this study presents evidence of an urban scale advantage for homicides. Additionally, in light of the relevance of urbanization for sustainability research [2,3,25], we also outlined this finding as a constructive piece of the emerging literature on the link between crime and sustainability [8]. Indeed, the concepts behind all the predictor variables used in our analysis play important roles in a range of theories on development and sustainability; therefore, to improve estimation and generalizability, future cross-national research on these topics can utilize SEM with the FIML option.…”

“…Indeed, looking at the quantitative research, the environmental consequences of these different dimensions of urbanization are not identical; they are unevenly associated with environmental change. As seen in the cross-national literature [25], much research has found a positive association between the general level of urbanization of a country and its per capita fossil fuel use. That is, compared to rural areas, urban areas have more productive and consumptive activities transpiring over a longer period of the day, which results in an increased use of fossil fuels.…”

“…Some quantitative scholars [25,33,38] ran longitudinal models after having selected a stratified sample of countries using different criteria (e.g., countries with populations greater than 500,000 or one million; high income countries; least developed countries; Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) Countries; former Soviet republics, etc.). Nevertheless, as seen in Appendix B, many countries meeting these selection criteria, including OECD countries and countries with more than one million people, still have missing values, and with listwise deletion, get dropped from the panel models.…”

Impact of Urbanization and Economic Growth on CO2 Emission: A Case of Far East Asian Countries

“…Researchers have also found positive effect of economic growth and CO 2 emission in developed, emerging and middle & north African countries [26]. The phenomenal economic growth in the studied countries in last few decades due to industrial and manufacturing booms has increased the demand for energy consumption which results in an increase in CO 2 emissions [4,5,22]. These countries were responsible for almost 18% of total global CO 2 emissions in 2013 from petroleum consumption.…”

“…Global warming is a major threat to the world environment and public health [1,2]. The massive industrial revolution in recent years ran by huge consumption of fossil fuels and consequent quick increase in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has led to austere global warming [3][4][5]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported an increase of average surface temperature by 0.6 • C in the twentieth century ascribed to greenhouse gases [2].…”