Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Southeast United States streamflow variability: Associations with the recent multi-decadal decline

Sadeghi, Sahar; Tootle, Glenn A.; Elliott, Emily; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, Matthew D.; Kam, Jonghun; Bearden, Bennett L.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.06.051

Cited by 20 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Given that the streams in this study have been identified by the USGS as "unimpaired" and have minimal anthropogenic impacts (such as consumptive extraction), our findings suggest that the rivers in this work are experiencing significant climate-driven declines in streamflow. These results are consistent with the findings of other studies throughout the southeastern US, which show this multidecadal decline associated with the interactions of both high-(La Niña) and low-(AMO, PDO) frequency climate teleconnections [14,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]46]. Knowledge of previous years' droughts and pluvial events is critical when making water policy decisions.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…The 2008CE (1999-2008 This period of multi-decadal streamflow decline has been observed throughout other states in the Southeastern US and appears to be associated with the confluence of multiple La Niña events (4) during a warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with an inverse relationship between mid-Atlantic SST and streamflow over the same period [46]. Multiple studies have shown the association between Southeastern US water resources and AMO, ENSO, and PDO conditions [1,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43], indicating the influence of both high and low frequency climate teleconnections within the region. Interestingly, the Pascagoula River displays a strong recovery in streamflow during the 2000s when compared to the AL-FL interstate rivers in both the 10-year and 20-year end-filter analyses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…For another example, Harley et al [14] demonstrated a strong reconstruction of streamflow in the Suwannee River over the period of 1550-2005 CE. Furthermore, multiple studies have utilized streamflow variability in the Southeast to identify hydroclimatic extremes (i.e., floods and droughts) and the associated climatic drivers (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) of such events [1,[35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow

Vines

Tootle

Terry

et al. 2021

Water

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Seasonal reconstructions of streamflow are valuable because they provide water planners, policy makers, and stakeholders with information on the range and variability of water resources before the observational period. In this study, we used streamflow data from five gages near the Alabama-Florida border and centuries-long tree-ring chronologies to create and analyze seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that several regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with March–October streamflow, and stepwise linear regression was used to create the reconstructions. Reconstructions spanned 1203–1985, 1652–1983, 1725–1993, 1867–2011, and 1238–1985 for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, Perdido, and Pascagoula Rivers, respectively, all of which were statistically skillful (R2 ≥ 0.50). The reconstructions were statistically validated using the following parameters: R2 predicted validation, the sign test, the variance inflation factor (VIF), and the Durbin–Watson (D–W) statistic. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, and Perdido Rivers, and the recent (2000s) drought was identified as being the most severe in the instrumental record. The 2000s drought was also identified as being one of the most severe droughts throughout the entire reconstructed paleo-record developed for all five rivers. This information is vital for the consideration of present and future conditions within the system.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow

Vines

Tootle

Terry

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Sadeghi et al [57] found a decrease in streamflow since 2000 due to five (2000,2007,2008, 2010, and 2011) La Niña events. A strong El Niño SST pattern with a large positive correlation extending from eastern to western Pacific was observed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land–Ocean–Atmosphere Influences on Groundwater Variability in the South Atlantic–Gulf Region

2020

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Climate association between Groundwater Storage (GWS) and sea level changes have been missing from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, demanding a requisite study of their linkage and responses. Variability in the Hydrologic Unit Code—03 region, i.e., one of the major U.S. watersheds in the southeast caused by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, was identified. Furthermore, the SST regions were identified to assess its relationship with GWS, sea level, precipitation, and terrestrial water storage. Temporal and spatial variability were obtained utilizing the singular value decomposition statistical method. A gridded GWS anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was used to understand the relationship with sea level and SST. The negative pockets of SST were negatively linked with GWS. The identification of teleconnections with groundwater may substantiate temporal patterns of groundwater variability. The results confirmed that the SST regions exhibited El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns, resulting in GWS changes. Moreover, a positive correlation between GWS and sea level was observed on the east coast in contrast to the southwestern United States. The findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in groundwater attributing changes in sea level. Therefore, SST could be a good predictor, possibly utilized for prior assessment of variabilities plus groundwater forecasting.

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“…SVD is a powerful statistical tool for identifying coupled relationship spatial-temporal fields, as Sadeghi et al [19] identified 18 prior climate st SVD was applied. Bretherton et al [20] and Wallace et al [21] provide a d sion of the theory of SVD and a brief description of SVD, as applied in the cu is hereby provided.…”

Section: Methods-singular Value Decompostion (Svd)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Atlantic Ocean Variability and European Alps Winter Precipitation

Formetta

Kam

Sadeghi

et al. 2021

Water

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Winter precipitation (snowpack) in the European Alps provides a critical source of freshwater to major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine, and Po. Previous research identified Atlantic Ocean variability and hydrologic responses in the European Alps. The research presented here evaluates Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and European Alps winter precipitation variability using Singular Value Decomposition. Regions in the north and mid-Atlantic from the SSTs were identified as being tele-connected with winter precipitation in the European Alps. Indices were generated for these Atlantic SST regions to use in prediction of precipitation. Regression and non-parametric models were developed using the indices as predictors and winter precipitation as the predictand for twenty-one alpine precipitation stations in Austria, Germany, and Italy. The proposed framework identified three regions in the European Alps in which model skill ranged from excellent (West Region–Po River Basin), to good (East Region) to poor (Central Region). A novel approach for forecasting future winter precipitation utilizing future projections of Atlantic SSTs predicts increased winter precipitation until ~2040, followed by decreased winter precipitation until ~2070, and then followed by increasing winter precipitation until ~2100.

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Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Southeast United States streamflow variability: Associations with the recent multi-decadal decline

Cited by 20 publications

References 39 publications

A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow

A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow

Land–Ocean–Atmosphere Influences on Groundwater Variability in the South Atlantic–Gulf Region

Atlantic Ocean Variability and European Alps Winter Precipitation

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