Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

Ogata, Tomomichi; Mizuta, Ryo; Adachi, Yoshiyuki; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Ose, Tomoaki

doi:10.1038/srep29800

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In addition, an atmosphere-ocean coupling effect could have a role in modulating the relative frequency of TCs. For example, some intense TCs could reach higher latitudes without influence of ocean cooling, while an ocean subsurface warming might cause an increase in the TC frequency 26,27 . Thus further investigation using an oceancoupled model with finer grid spacing will be needed in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

et al. 2020

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Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

et al. 2020

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“…As we used the AGCM with fixed SST, one may concern about the effect of air-sea interaction on the results because it is widely known that ocean-atmosphere coupling process is essential in the western tropical Pacific at least for the seasonal prediction (Wang et al 2005). Ogata et al (2015Ogata et al ( , 2016 performed an experiment using the 60-km mesh MRI-AGCM3.2 to investigate the air-sea interaction effects through an AOGCM with flux adjustment. Necessary flux adjustment values are obtained by nudging the SST toward the present and future SST used in the AGCM experiment.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations

Endo¹

2019

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Future changes in precipitation extremes and role of tropical cyclones are investigated through a large ensemble experiment, considering 6,000 years for the present and 5,400 years under +4 K warming, using a 60-km mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model version 3.2. As in the previous findings of the authors, the annual maximum 1-day precipitation total (Rx1d) is projected to increase in the warmer world in the future almost globally, except in the western North Pacific where a projected decrease of tropical cyclone frequency results in only small change or even reduction of Rx1d. Furthermore, a large ensemble size enables us to investigate the changes in the tails of the Rx1d distribution. It is found that 90-and 99-percentile values of the Rx1d associated with tropical cyclones will increase in a region extending from Hawaii to the south of Japan. In this region, the interannual variability of the Rx1d associated with tropical cyclones is also projected to increase, implying an increasing risk of rare heavier rainfall events because of global warming.

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“…About 60% of recorded TC‐eddy interactions occur in 0–20°N region for both CCEs and WCEs (not shown). The influence of latitude is especially remarkable for intense TCs (Ogata et al, , ). With 20°N as the separation latitude between tropical region and subtropical region following Mei and Pasquero (), Figure shows boxplots of maximum SSTA in CCE, COM, and WCE conditions for category 2–5 TCs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modulating Effects of Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies on Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

Fei

Huang

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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The impact of mesoscale oceanic eddies on the temporal and spatial characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) response to tropical cyclones is investigated in this study based on composite analysis of cyclone‐eddy interactions over the western North Pacific. The occurrence times of maximum cooling, recovery time, and spatial patterns of SST response are specially evaluated. The influence of cold‐core eddies (CCEs) renders the mean occurrence time of maximum SST cooling to become about half a day longer than that in eddy‐free condition, while warm‐core eddies (WCEs) have little effect on this facet. The recovery time of SST cooling also takes longer in presence of CCEs, being overall more pronounced for stronger or slower tropical cyclones. The effect of WCEs on the recovery time is again not significant. The modulation of maximum SST decrease by WCEs for category 2–5 storms is found to be remarkable in the subtropical region but not evident in the tropical region, while the role of CCEs is remarkable in both regions. The CCEs are observed to change the spatial characteristics of SST response, with enhanced SST decrease initially at the right side of storm track. During the recovery period the strengthened SST cooling by CCEs propagates leftward gradually, with a feature similar as both the westward‐propagating eddies and the recovery of cold wake. These results underscore the importance of resolving mesoscale oceanic eddies in coupled numerical models to improve the prediction of storm‐induced SST response.

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Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM

Cited by 32 publications

References 48 publications

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Associated with Tropical Cyclones Projected by Large-Ensemble Simulations

Modulating Effects of Mesoscale Oceanic Eddies on Sea Surface Temperature Response to Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

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