Attribution analysis of different driving forces on vegetation and streamflow variation in the Jialing River Basin, China

Abstract

As an important tributary of the Yangtze River basin, the Jialing River Basin (JRB) has a variable topography and fragile ecological environment. Under the influence of climate warming and human activities, the runoff and vegetation cover of the area are undergoing significant changes. For evaluating the impact of different factors on vegetation and streamflow variation in the JRB, the univariate linear regression method was employed to analyze the variation trend of streamflow and vegetation, and a heuristic segmentation algorithm was applied for identifying the mutation year of streamflow and NDVI time-series data in the JRB. Then, the influence degree of different factors on streamflow variation in the JRB was calculated by the Budyko equation and elastic coefficient method. Finally, the contribution rates of different factors to vegetation variation in the JRB were calculated by the multiple linear regression method. The results indicated that the mutation year of streamflow and NDVI time series data were 1985 and 2006, respectively. The contribution rates of climate factors and human activities to streamflow change in the JRB were 42.7 and 57.3%, respectively. The contribution rates to vegetation change were 28.89 and 71.11%, respectively. In general, human activities are the main driving force leading to runoff and vegetation changes in the JRB. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the ecological environment protection and water resources management of the JRB.

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