2008
DOI: 10.1089/fpd.2008.0115
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Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation

Abstract: Objectives: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. Methods: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters. Joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (PI). Results: Sixteen experts participated in the study. PI resulted in good fits for mos… Show more

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Cited by 131 publications
(123 citation statements)
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“…Another example of the use of a systematic expert elicitation approach for source attribution is the study performed to estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. In this study, 16 food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters, and joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (Havelaar et al, 2008).…”
Section: Expert Elicitation Approachesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Another example of the use of a systematic expert elicitation approach for source attribution is the study performed to estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human-human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. In this study, 16 food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates of the most likely range for each of the parameters, and joint probability distributions were created by probabilistic inversion (Havelaar et al, 2008).…”
Section: Expert Elicitation Approachesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One way to tackle this issue is the point of exposure approach, which estimates attribution at the level of the vehicle (Pires et al, 2009). It considers the major pathways for the transmission of these illnesses and quantifies the proportion of cases due to each route (e.g., foodborne transmission and direct contact with animals) and further due to each vehicle within each route (Adak et al, 2002;Karns et al, 2007;Havelaar et al, 2008). Since the foodborne route is considered the most important one for most infectious gastrointestinal illness, estimating the proportion of cases transmitted through food is a crucial step in efforts to reduce human illness.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Attribution of human cases (and thus the related disease burden) was based on estimates from an expert elicitation (Havelaar et al, 2008). Among the incidences from 11 of the pathogens were attributed to food (Campylobacter spp, Listeria monocytogenes, Pathogenic E. Coli -STEC O157, Salmonella spp, Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia Iambiia, Norovirus as well as toxins from Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens and Staphylococcus aureus).…”
Section: Application Of the Most Promising Methods (Daly/qaly And Cosmentioning
confidence: 99%