Attribution of the 2020 surge in atmospheric methane by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations

Qu, Zhen; Jacob, Daniel; Zhang, Yuzhong; Shen, Lu; Varon, Daniel J.; Lu, Xiao; Scarpelli, Tia R.; Bloom, A. Anthony; Worden, J.; Parker, Robert J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac8754

Cited by 27 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…These results are supported by the findings of Qu et al. (2022) from GOSAT retrievals, that 82% of methane growth from 2019 to 2020 was primarily driven by increased emissions rather than [OH] sink reductions, with a large contribution from African wetlands. Similarly, Drinkwater et al.…”

Section: The Wetland Hypothesissupporting

confidence: 84%

“…Similarly, looking at the surge in growth in 2019–2020, using a global inverse analysis of GOSAT satellite observations, Qu et al. (2022) found the imbalance between sources and sinks of methane increased by 31 Tg in the year 2019–2020. They found that half the growth in methane emissions in 2019–2020 took place in Africa, especially East Africa, most likely from wetlands, with strong emissions growth in Canada also.…”

Section: Inference: Increased Natural Emissions Are a Major Cause Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the year 2020, Qu et al. (2022) attributed 86 ± 18% of the growth surge to increased emissions, especially from wetlands in Africa (15 Tg/yr) and Canada and Alaska (4.8 Tg/yr), although there was also evidence for 14% of the growth coming from a decrease in methane's [OH] sink, to which also Stevenson et al. (2022) attribute part of methane's growth in 2020.…”

Section: Inference: Increased Natural Emissions Are a Major Cause Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Nisbet

Manning

Dlugokencky³

et al. 2023

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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Atmospheric methane's rapid growth from late 2006 is unprecedented in the observational record. Assessment of atmospheric methane data attributes a large fraction of this atmospheric growth to increased natural emissions over the tropics, which appear to be responding to changes in anthropogenic climate forcing. Isotopically lighter measurements of are consistent with the recent atmospheric methane growth being mainly driven by an increase in emissions from microbial sources, particularly wetlands. The global methane budget is currently in disequilibrium and new inputs are as yet poorly quantified. Although microbial emissions from agriculture and waste sources have increased between 2006 and 2022 by perhaps 35 Tg/yr, with wide uncertainty, approximately another 35–45 Tg/yr of the recent net growth in methane emissions may have been driven by natural biogenic processes, especially wetland feedbacks to climate change. A model comparison shows that recent changes may be comparable or greater in scale and speed than methane's growth and isotopic shift during past glacial/interglacial termination events. It remains possible that methane's current growth is within the range of Holocene variability, but it is also possible that methane's recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large‐scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way.

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Section: The Wetland Hypothesissupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Inference: Increased Natural Emissions Are a Major Cause Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Inference: Increased Natural Emissions Are a Major Cause Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Nisbet

Manning

Dlugokencky³

et al. 2023

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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“…The imagery data provide new information to interpret contemporary changes in the atmospheric growth rate-in our example, year-to-year changes in the areal extent of the Sudd and surrounding wetlands are remarkably consistent with observed changes in the global atmospheric methane growth rate. This supports the idea that a large fraction of those recent annual changes in the atmospheric growth of methane are due to wetland emissions driven by changes in hydrology, particularly from Eastern Africa (Lunt et al 2021, Pandey et al 2021, Peng et al 2022, Qu et al 2022, Feng et al 2022b, 2023. The EO imagery data also represent additional information with which to constrain computational model parameters to improve the predictive capability of those models to describe hydrodynamics in continental-scale rivers.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Satellite data reveal how Sudd wetland dynamics are linked with globally-significant methane emissions

Hardy

Palmer

Oakes

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Recent work has highlighted the large role of methane emissions from the Sudd wetland and surrounding ecosystems on the global atmospheric growth rate of methane since 2010. These emissions are driven by high rainfall over basin catchments linked with the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We reconstruct flood inundation for the Sudd wetland over a 38-year period at a spatial resolution of 30 m using a new satellite Earth Observation (EO) wetland mapping tool. We reveal considerable changes in the wet season extent of the wetland, including an increase > 300% since 2019 compared to the median 1984-2022 extent. We report major increases in flood extent within grassland-dominated floodplains outside of the area currently defined Sudd wetland region. These year-to-year changes in wetland extent are corroborated with total water storage anomalies inferred from satellite data (Pearson correlation R=0.92), Lake Victoria levels (R=0.73), and anomalies in reported annual mean global methane growth rates since 2009 (R=0.88). Our analysis shows that flood water inundation is dominated by inundated vegetation and aquatic vegetation, accounting for an average of 40% and 50% of total extent, respectively, compared to open water that accounted for just 9% of inundation in a typical year. This is consistent with recent studies that report wetland methane emissions are focused on areas with inundated vegetation. Our findings also support recent studies that highlight the significant role of the Sudd wetland in driving anomalously large global atmospheric annual growth rates, 2020-2022. By capturing high resolution information on inundated vegetation, our EO wetland mapping tool has significant potential for improved wetland emission estimates of methane. Vascular plants common in the Sudd wetland, e.g., macrophytes including Phragmites Australis and Cyperus Papyrus, seem to play a key role in methane emissions and we recommend they should be the focus of future research.

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“…The anomalous global atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 (refs. 124,125 ) and 2021 (ref. 125 ) have also been partly attributed to anomalous Eastern African wetland emissions.…”

Section: Ecosystem Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability

Palmer

Wainwright

Dong

et al. 2023

Nat Rev Earth Environ

107

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Eastern Africa exhibits bimodal rainfall consisting of long rains (March-May) and short rains (October-December), changes in which have profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts. In this Review, we examine the drivers and corresponding impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Remote teleconnections, namely the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, exert a dominant influence on interannual variability. From the mid-1980s to 2010, the long rains have tended toward a drier state (trends of −0.65 to −2.95 mm season −1 year −1 ), with some recovery thereafter, while the short rains have become wetter since the mid 1980s (1.44 to 2.36 mm season −1 year −1 ). These trends, overlain by substantial year-to-year variations, affect the severity and frequency of extreme flooding and droughts, the stability of food and energy systems, the susceptibility to water-borne and vectorborne diseases, and ecosystem stability. Climate model projections of rainfall changes differ, but there is some consensus that the short rains will deliver more rainfall than the long rains by 2030-2040, with implications for sustaining agricultural yields and triggering climaterelated public health emergencies. Mitigating the impacts of future Eastern African climate requires continued investments in agriculture, clean water, medical and emergency infrastructures, and development and adoption of adaptation strategies, as well as targeted early-warning systems driven by improved meteorological observations. Sections 2015 coincided with a weaker IOD, producing anomalies ~50% above the climatological mean 18 . However, these relationships are nonlinear, as demonstrated by extreme 2019/2020 rainfall that occurred during an anomalously positive phase of the IOD but neutral ENSO conditions 20 .The IOD and ENSO physically influence Eastern African short rains by modifying regional atmospheric circulation features (Fig. 2a,b).Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author selfarchiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

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Attribution of the 2020 surge in atmospheric methane by inverse analysis of GOSAT observations

Cited by 27 publications

References 48 publications

Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations

Satellite data reveal how Sudd wetland dynamics are linked with globally-significant methane emissions

Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability

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