Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States

Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; Kamae, Youichi; Ishii, Masayoshi; Kimoto, Masahide

doi:10.2151/sola.2014-025

Cited by 49 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Additionally, a high resolution (global 0.5 • grid) hydrological discharge model (Hagemann and Dümenil, 1997) is activated. The fourth modeling group is the model for interdisciplinary research on climate version 5 (MIROC5) contributed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (Shiogama et al, 2013(Shiogama et al, , 2014. The fifth modeling group (NorESM1) is an updated version of the Norwegian Earth System model version 1 Iversen et al, 2013) contributed by the Norwegian Climate Center.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

et al. 2018

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Abstract. The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 • C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 • C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 • C over present-day values in the 1.5 • C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 • C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 • C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

et al. 2018

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“…This simulation is called the counterfactual natural experiment (hereafter Nat-run) [Stott et al, 2010;Pall et al, 2011;Christidis et al, 2013;Shiogama et al, 2013]. The anthropogenically induced SST change was estimated by taking the difference between the SST in the all-forcing historical run and the natural-forcing run of multiple CMIP5 AOGCMs (i.e., the "NAT2" method in Shiogama et al [2014]; http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/ input_data/C20C-DandA_dSSTs_All-Hist-est1_Nat-Hist-CMIP5-est1.pdf). Further details of the experimental setup can be found in Shiogama et al [2014].…”

Section: Agcm Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

Kamae

Shiogama

Ishii³

et al. 2015

Geophysical Research Letters

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Observed upper tropospheric temperature over the tropics (TTUT) shows a slowdown in warming rate during 1997–2011 despite the continuous warming projected by coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This observation‐model discord is an underlying issue regarding the reliability of future climate projections based on AOGCMs. To investigate the slowdown, we conducted ensemble historical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea surface temperature both with and without anthropogenic influences. The historical AGCM run reproduced a muted TTUT change over the central Pacific (CP) found in multiple observations, while the multi‐AOGCM mean did not. Recent tropical Pacific cooling, which is considered natural variability, contributes to the muted trend over the CP and the resultant slowdown of TTUT increase. The results of this study suggest that difficulties in simulating the recent “upper tropospheric warming hiatus” do not indicate low reliability of AOGCM‐based future climate projections.

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“…Takayabu et al (2015) examined typhoon Haiyan and showed that its expected strength has been intensified by global warming from pre-industrial period until the current day. A similar approach was applied to heat wave events to elucidate the effect of anthropogenic global warming (e.g., Shiogama et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

et al. 2018

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An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

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Attribution of the June-July 2013 Heat Wave in the Southwestern United States

Cited by 49 publications

References 27 publications

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability

Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

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