22Biodiversity loss and sparse observational data mean that critical conservation 23 decisions may be based on little to no information. Emerging technologies, such as airborne 24 thermal imaging and virtual reality, may facilitate species monitoring and improve 25 predictions of species distribution. Here we combined these two technologies to predict the 26 distribution of koalas, specialized arboreal foliovores facing population declines in many 27 parts of eastern Australia. For a study area in southeast Australia, we complemented ground-28 survey records with presence and absence observations from thermal-imagery obtained using 29 Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Systems. These field observations were further complemented 30 with information elicited from koala experts, who were immersed in 360-degree images of 31 the study area. The experts were asked to state the probability of observing a koala at sites 32 they viewed and to assign each probability a confidence rating. We fit logistic regression 33 models to the ground survey data and the ground plus thermal-imagery survey data and a beta 34 regression model to the expert elicitation data. We then combined parameter estimates from 35 the expert-elicitation model with those from each of the survey models to predict koala 36 presence and absence in the study area. The model that combined the ground, thermal-37 imagery and expert-elicitation data substantially reduced the uncertainty around parameter 38 estimates and increased the accuracy of classifications (koala presence vs absence), relative 39 to the model based on ground-survey data alone. Our findings suggest that data elicited from 40 experts using virtual reality technology can be combined with data from other emerging 41 technologies, such as airborne thermal-imagery, using traditional statistical models, to 42 increase the information available for species distribution modelling and the conservation of 43 vulnerable and protected species.
Introduction
45In the face of unprecedented biodiversity loss, critical decisions are needed on the 46 conservation of vulnerable and protected species [1,2]. Unfortunately, information is seldom 47 available or dense enough in space and time to effectively inform those decisions [3].48 Monitoring programs often rely on observational records of species collected during ground 49 surveys. However, ground-based detection of vulnerable and protected species is difficult, 50 particularly when species are rare or elusive, and information may be biased towards single 51 or few individuals (e.g. radio-collared animals) or sites with high abundance [4,5].52 Furthermore, monitoring large areas using traditional ground-survey methods is logistically 53 and financially infeasible, and while professional monitoring may be time consuming and 54 expensive, volunteer data may be biased and of questionable quality [6,7]. These issues all 55 contribute towards the sparse data problem.
56Emerging technologies provide an opportunity to increase the spatial and temporal 57 coverage of data,...