Automatic mechanism
generation is used to determine mechanisms
for the CO
2
hydrogenation on Ni(111) in a two-stage process
while considering the correlated uncertainty in DFT-based energetic
parameters systematically. In a coarse stage, all the possible chemistry
is explored with gas-phase products down to the ppb level, while a
refined stage discovers the core methanation submechanism. Five thousand
unique mechanisms were generated, which contain minor perturbations
in all parameters. Global uncertainty assessment, global sensitivity
analysis, and degree of rate control analysis are performed to study
the effect of this parametric uncertainty on the microkinetic model
predictions. Comparison of the model predictions with experimental
data on a Ni/SiO
2
catalyst find a feasible set of microkinetic
mechanisms within the correlated uncertainty space that are in quantitative
agreement with the measured data, without relying on explicit parameter
optimization. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses provide
tools to determine the pathways and key factors that control the methanation
activity within the parameter space. Together, these methods reveal
that the degree of rate control approach can be misleading if parametric
uncertainty is not considered. The procedure of considering uncertainties
in the automated mechanism generation is not unique to CO
2
methanation and can be easily extended to other challenging heterogeneously
catalyzed reactions.