Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract-Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviationaffecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed-ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry-to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

Meteorological Applications Benefiting from an Improved Understanding of Atmospheric Exchange Processes over Mountains

“…High pollutant concentrations are typically determined by reduced mixing in the lower Figure 7. Some turbulence features over and near mountainous terrain relevant for aviation (adapted from [103]).…”

“…Some turbulence features over and near mountainous terrain relevant for aviation (adapted from[103]). …”

Aviation Meteorology: Observations and Models. Introduction

“…Global climate change issues are also critical for aviation operations. For example, temperature changes of a few°C can impact aircraft aerodynamical conditions such as lift and drag, as well as climb rates (Storer et al 2019). Regional air pollution issues, including volcanic ash and dust conditions, also affect flying conditions; but aircraft contrail formation due to exhaust gases during taking off or landing can also affect the weather and climate (Gultepe et al 2014;Heymsfield et al 1998Heymsfield et al , 2010Schumann 2002Schumann , 2005.…”

Multi‐diagnostic multi‐model ensemble forecasts of aviation turbulence

“…The first is shear turbulence (Endlich, ; Atlas et al ., ) which is predominantly found around the fast flowing winds of the jet stream. The second is mountain wave turbulence (MWT) (Lilly, ) where gravity waves are produced which can ultimately lead to CAT (Storer et al ., ). The third is convectively induced turbulence (CIT) (Uccellini and Koch, ; Koch and Dorian, ) where deep convection can initiate gravity waves, much like MWT, which can ultimately lead to CAT as well as in‐cloud turbulence within the convective cloud.…”