Baseline drivers of lymphatic filariasis in Burkina Faso

Stanton, Michelle C.; Molyneux, David; Kyelem, Dominique; Bougma, Roland; Koudou, Benjamin G.; Kelly-Hope, Louise A.

doi:10.4081/gh.2013.63

Cited by 19 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…We demonstrate that the probability of LF transmission increases with increasing precipitation, temperature and certain vegetation types but decreases with increasing altitude (Figure 4 ). These findings are consistent with previous analyses of environmental correlates at continental [ 49 ],[ 50 ] and country [ 52 ],[ 104 ],[ 105 ] scales and are, undoubtedly, linked to temperature-related variation in vector survival and parasite development within the vector [ 82 ],[ 84 ],[ 85 ],[ 106 ]. Our risk map, developed using boosted regression tree modelling, shows that the environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission occurs throughout the forest and savannah regions of West Africa, coastal east Africa and Madagascar and restricted foci in central and southern Africa.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…More recently, Slater and Michael have used maximum entropy ecological niche modelling [ 50 ] and Bayesian model-based geostatistics [ 51 ] to predict the geographical occurrence and distribution of LF in Africa. Risk maps using environmental factors or spatial interpolation have also been developed at national or sub-national scales in West Africa [ 52 ], Egypt [ 53 ] and India [ 54 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

et al. 2014

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BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission.MethodsWe undertook a systematic search and assembly of prevalence data worldwide and used a suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression trees (BRT) modelling to map the transmission limits of LF.ResultsData were identified for 66 of the 72 countries currently endemic and for a further 17 countries where LF is no longer endemic. Our map highlights a restricted and highly heterogeneous distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, with transmission more widespread in West Africa compared to east, central and southern Africa where pockets of transmission occur. Contemporary transmission occurs across much of south and South-east Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, the risk map reflects environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission across Central and South America, including the southern States of America, although active transmission is only known in a few isolated foci. In countries that have eliminated LF, our predictions of environmental suitability are consistent with historical distribution.ConclusionsThe global distribution of LF is highly heterogeneous and geographically targeted and sustained control will be required to achieve elimination. This first global map can help evaluate the progress of interventions and guide surveillance activities.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0466-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

et al. 2014

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“…For example, the Slater and Michael model predict mf prevalences above 75 % in Sudan and South Sudan-Ethiopia border, whereas our predicted prevalence <10 % and recent surveys using ICTs found low levels of antigenaemia [ 55 – 57 ]. Our predicted distribution of antigenaemia is also consistent with previous country-level models [ 8 , 58 – 60 ]. Uncertainty in predictions based on mf prevalence data is greatest for central Africa, primarily driven by a scarcity of mf surveys conducted since 1990.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling

et al. 2015

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BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination. The ability to interrupt transmission is, partly, influenced by the underlying intensity of transmission and its geographical variation. This information can also help guide the design of targeted surveillance activities. The present study uses a combination of geostatistical and mathematical modelling to predict the prevalence and transmission intensity of LF prior to the implementation of large-scale control in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsA systematic search of the literature was undertaken to identify surveys on the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaraemia (mf), based on blood smears, and on the prevalence of antigenaemia, based on the use of an immuno-chromatographic card test (ICT). Using a suite of environmental and demographic data, spatiotemporal multivariate models were fitted separately for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence within a Bayesian framework and used to make predictions for non-sampled areas. Maps of the dominant vector species of LF were also developed. The maps of predicted prevalence and vector distribution were linked to mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of LF to infer the intensity of transmission, quantified by the basic reproductive number (R0).ResultsThe literature search identified 1267 surveys that provide suitable data on the prevalence of mf and 2817 surveys that report the prevalence of antigenaemia. Distinct spatial predictions arose from the models for mf prevalence and ICT-based prevalence, with a wider geographical distribution when using ICT-based data. The vector distribution maps demonstrated the spatial variation of LF vector species. Mathematical modelling showed that the reproduction number (R0) estimates vary from 2.7 to 30, with large variations between and within regions.ConclusionsLF transmission is highly heterogeneous, and the developed maps can help guide intervention, monitoring and surveillance strategies as countries progress towards LF elimination.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1166-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…More recently, Slater and Michael have used maximum entropy ecological niche modelling [50] and Bayesian model-based geostatistics [51] to predict the geographical occurrence and distribution of LF in Africa. Risk maps using environmental factors or spatial interpolation have also been developed at national or sub-national scales in West Africa [52], Egypt [53] and India [54].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

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Golding

et al. 2014

Parasites & Vectors

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Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission.

show abstract

Baseline drivers of lymphatic filariasis in Burkina Faso

Cited by 19 publications

References 36 publications

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

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