Bayesian-Based NIMBY Crisis Transformation Path Discovery for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration in China

Qing, Yang; Zhu, Yimei; Liu, Xingxing; Fu, Lingmei; Guo, Qianqian

doi:10.3390/su11082364

Cited by 18 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…For a further understanding of the incinerator risk, the identification of the rational state of residents is the most important way to support the government in waste incinerator construction. After that, correct NIMBY knowledge should be induced via insight into the pollution control of the incinerator and the improvement of facilities [13]. This promotes the impact of neighbors on the residents in the non-pseudo-rational state.…”

Section: Decision Strategy For the Changing Of Public Risk Attributementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this hypothesis, some supporters and centrists seem to follow the residents who are against the construction of waste incineration during social interactions, which leads to conflict with respect to the environmental facility. This behavior is described by the theory of sheep, which was always proposed to describe the herd behavior in many aspects such as changing fashion and occupation choice [13]. Accordingly, it is called the "sheep-flock" effect, a kind of "herd effect", to describe that the individual's ideas or behaviors in a group's interaction will change in the same direction as the majority [17,18].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

et al. 2020

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In current work, the phenomenon of NIMBY (not in my back yard) for a municipal solid waste incinerator was recognized through an investigation for the evolution of individual risk attitude to group risk attitude (ItGRA). The cellular automaton model was employed to evaluate the risk attitude status with different frequencies of social interaction between residents. In the simulation case, the risk attitude of residents in the pseudo-rational state and non-pseudo-rational state was evaluated, which indicates the sheep-flock effect on the exaggeration of public NIMBY attitude. To the incinerator, the individual risk attitude evolved to supportive group risk attitude at a social interaction frequency 100 times higher than that in family or local neighborhoods, when the initial number of residents in opposition and support was equal. This was supported by the result of the model in the evaluation of resident risk attitude around the incinerator in Shanghai. On the contrary, for those in a non-pseudo-rational state, the ultimate group risk attitude depends on the probability that the residents have a supportive or opposing risk attitude as the concept of individuals was difficult to change. Accordingly, the decision strategy of incinerator construction should consider the influence of the sheep-flock effect, which can increase the attitude of residents in support and lead to the evolution of a group risk attitude to support attitude. Therefore, this study provides insight into the evolution of public attitude to NIMBY attitude and a promising evaluation method to quantify and guide the individual and group risk attitudes.

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Section: Decision Strategy For the Changing Of Public Risk Attributementioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

et al. 2020

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“…Tough stability maintenance measures intensified public opposition to the NIMBY facility [ 9 ]. Yang et al Integrated Bayesian network structure discovery and co-word analysis into a qualitative analysis, searched data and key factors from a literature search engine with specific themes were used for structure learning, the result confirmed that the Bayesian network model can help government find the path to transform waste NIMBY crisis, which provided a theoretical basis for understanding the transformation of waste NIMBY crisis in China [ 10 ]. Based on this, this paper will further apply relevant theories to answer “why does the waste NIMBY crisis happen?” “How does the waste NIMBY crisis evolve?” Additionally, the scientific validity of the model is verified by a case study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China

Ling

Qing

Liu

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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As the impact factors of the waste Not-In-My-Back Yard (NIMBY) crisis are complex, and the scenario evolution path of it is diverse. Once the crisis is not handled properly, it will bring adverse effects on the construction of waste NIMBY facilities, economic development and social stability. Consequently, based on ground theory, this paper takes the waste NIMBY crisis in China from 2006 to 2019 as typical cases, through coding analysis, scenario evolution factors of waste NIMBY crisis are established. Furtherly, three key scenarios were obtained, namely, external situation (E), situation state (S), emergency management (M), what is more, scenario evolution law of waste NIMBY crisis is revealed. Then, the dynamic Bayesian network theory is used to construct the dynamic scenario evolution network of waste NIMBY crisis. Finally, based on the above models, Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is taken as a case study, and the dynamic process of scenario evolution network is visually displayed by using Netica. The simulation results show that the scenario evolution network of Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is basically consistent with the actual incident development process, which confirms the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

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“…Existing studies focus primarily on the formation mechanism [15] and evolutionary logic of NIMBY conflicts [16] using diachronic analysis, survey study methods or examining the psychology and behaviour of local governments and affected people in decision making in NIMBY projects using specific cases. Governance strategies for NIMBY conflicts have been proposed based on technological improvement, benefit compensation and citizen participation [17,18], but most of them focus on end treatment, and there is little analysis of the NIMBY dilemma from the perspective of public policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Can China Resolve the NIMBY Dilemma in a Network Society? Government and Society-Negotiated Decisions Based on Evolutionary Game Analysis

Cui

Han

2022

Sustainability

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Infrastructure, such as waste incineration infrastructure, is entangled in the “not in my back yard” (NIMBY) dilemma. Consequently, the closed public decision-making model has difficulty adapting to the increasingly strong public-participation needs. Thus, a new mode of negotiated decision making is urgently required. This paper focuses on the negotiation problem, considers the government and society as game players, builds an evolutionary game model of negotiated decisions based on the bounded rationality hypothesis, and simulates the process and results of the evolution of the players’ strategy. The study concludes that the stable state of system evolution depends on the initial state of the dual populations and the comparative relationship between changes in revenue and cost, and the sufficient and unnecessary condition for the government and society to both agree on the given strategy. Taking the waste incineration projects in Yuhang and Chaonan as examples, the negotiated decision-making practice of NIMBY facilities is analysed, and it is found that it takes less time for the system to reach equilibrium in the latter. Finally, optimisation strategies for decision making regarding NIMBY facilities are systematically proposed.

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Bayesian-Based NIMBY Crisis Transformation Path Discovery for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration in China

Cited by 18 publications

References 107 publications

Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

Evolution of the Individual Attitude in the Risk Decision of Waste Incinerator Construction: Cellular Automaton Model

Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China

How Can China Resolve the NIMBY Dilemma in a Network Society? Government and Society-Negotiated Decisions Based on Evolutionary Game Analysis

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